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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Also, I disagree that there is no systemic risk now. To the contrary, I believe there is huge systemic risk.
I am not trying to be critical of any fundamental analysis but it seems that sometimes certain "news" is emphasized by media pundits to explain market moves that already happened.
yield are going back to the 4 percent level but before u might ahve still pulling money in till 2.20/30
Earlier you posted the following..
""i do always read the t notes yield... you may notice it has just crossed the 2008 low to the downside. Last yield llow was followed by a stock market crash.""
catnip, could you post a chart? And do the European yields play a part of the analysis?
Anyway the trading plan is
EURUSD drops to range 13810- 13790 from that level raises back to 14300
i place a stop buy @13930 sl 13900 tp 1398
and
stop sell 13900 sl 13930 tp 13800
but it could be G7 IMF summit may change that
money is gonna flow to europe euro till 1.43 its a major resistant.
the only systemic rsik we might have will by end 2011
i do always read the t notes yield... you may notice it has just crossed the 2008 low to the downside. Last yield llow was followed by a stock market crash. If FED does more monetizing, i.e. more qe the yield will drop further. Imo what FED governors and Bernanke do until mid term election is to keep the markets wondering. But no action. If Reps win the house of representatives I'll keep my bet: no qe. Fact is the FED still manages to keep the market under its control after all China has done some appreciation before G7. The FEd could lose control with qe. So a rate hike is possible.
Ashraf
what is bad for US is good for eurusd.
Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop.
now what does your charting say? short the euro some more?
hahaha"
EUR/USD chart says the same thing it did before the npf news, in my opinion. I still the short opened Thursday. It is currently at 91 pips profit and stop was moved to break even.