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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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cygnus
New York, United States
Posts: 63
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 23:13
You could be right, said. I'll stay with my short, however. If I get stopped at break even, no big deal. Trading models I have developed for actual entry, exit and risk management are to a large extent mechanical in practice and rooted in probabilities, the maximizing profit from good trades and the minimizing of loss from bad ones.

Also, I disagree that there is no systemic risk now. To the contrary, I believe there is huge systemic risk.

I am not trying to be critical of any fundamental analysis but it seems that sometimes certain "news" is emphasized by media pundits to explain market moves that already happened.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 23:08
jetus
yield are going back to the 4 percent level but before u might ahve still pulling money in till 2.20/30
Jetus
Kentucky, United States
Posts: 5
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 22:23
catnip;

Earlier you posted the following..

""i do always read the t notes yield... you may notice it has just crossed the 2008 low to the downside. Last yield llow was followed by a stock market crash.""

catnip, could you post a chart? And do the European yields play a part of the analysis?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 22:20
I think such a low in T note yields could qualify as systemic risk.
Anyway the trading plan is

EURUSD drops to range 13810- 13790 from that level raises back to 14300
i place a stop buy @13930 sl 13900 tp 1398
and
stop sell 13900 sl 13930 tp 13800
but it could be G7 IMF summit may change that
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 22:09
we ar not in the context of a systemic risk
money is gonna flow to europe euro till 1.43 its a major resistant.
the only systemic rsik we might have will by end 2011
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 21:13
ashraf
i do always read the t notes yield... you may notice it has just crossed the 2008 low to the downside. Last yield llow was followed by a stock market crash. If FED does more monetizing, i.e. more qe the yield will drop further. Imo what FED governors and Bernanke do until mid term election is to keep the markets wondering. But no action. If Reps win the house of representatives I'll keep my bet: no qe. Fact is the FED still manages to keep the market under its control after all China has done some appreciation before G7. The FEd could lose control with qe. So a rate hike is possible.
cygnus
New York, United States
Posts: 63
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 20:10
Said, so based on your understanding the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was not bad for the US? After that crisis became apparent the eur/usd fell over 3,700 pips in a few months.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 19:59
catnip, your trade plan on EURUSD sounds very plausible (pls add that to the Euro forum). But i dont agree with what u said in USD forum about an actual Fed hike after elections

Ashraf
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 19:50
cygnus
what is bad for US is good for eurusd.
cygnus
New York, United States
Posts: 63
14 years ago
Oct 9, 2010 19:31
"To all the Elliot wave / technical / charters out there,

Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 5,000 drop.

now what does your charting say? short the euro some more?

hahaha"

EUR/USD chart says the same thing it did before the npf news, in my opinion. I still the short opened Thursday. It is currently at 91 pips profit and stop was moved to break even.
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