Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
1...247724782479248024812482248324842485248624872488248924902491...3077
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 18:39
Subway, i did look at that 1.3330 and it could well be the next barrier should we break above 13200. So Im with you in that. But no further than that level

Ashraf
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 18:36
Catnip..

feels like below 3045 is a back to sell mode not 3100... :)
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 18:28
ptaczek
my "fortune" is gold coins gold bullions and EUROs so I AM worried ...ya know
sub
as said I thought EURUSD will cross 133 and have a long position but it doesn't
below 1.31 we are back in sell mode and I am break even with long.

There is a 50/50 chance that Ezone will not accept IMF , namely Germany and France will but the PIIGS will not
now that I have the CAN$ 389 currency strength meter running it shows that USD and EUR are no longer diverging that means IMF is priced in.
So no 1,33
Further US data employment shows relief while EZone employment deteriorates ( overall)
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 18:16
Ashraf...

calling 3180 top for the week and resumption of downtrend? hmmmm...
so no chance of going back above 3300 for Euro b4 next leg down? i see good possibility to test 3380/3400 b4 down...
i see strong support 2850/2900 level(if ever we see a dip first)... don't really see it falling below it at least for now... should see some substantial bounce from that level... unless we see a weekly close below 2900 level...

let's see if you could keep it rolling.... :)
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 18:05
catnip:
I agree on the fact that EU banks are in worse shape than the US in terms of capital. Back in Q4 2008 we was discussing that issue and thought the problem will be visible sooner than it really was. Im not much of a doom&gloom person, but there are even FaceBook activities that call people to go run o their banks ;)

ashraf:
tnx for early warning!
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 17:56
The point is haircut or not.... Ezone cannot permit haircut that would inevitably cause bank failure. EZone banks lack capital more then US banks. Not a single US bank holds PIIGS bonds.
Neither does PIMCO.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 17:56
ALL EYES ON ECB MEETING TOMORROW and on the fate of the bond purchasing program. JC Trichet referred to bond purchases as ongoing, which raises questions over whether the ECB will unleash its own version of quantitative easing. The 67 bln in purchased Ezone bonds has been dwarfed by the asset purchases of the Fed and the BoE. Recall the euros initial positive reaction to the May announcement of bond purchases on relief about alleviating liquidity.

But the subsequent reaction turned EUR-negative as purchases are a form of further easing, which is always negative for currencies--especially in the case of an about-turn by the ECB on the subject.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MONTHLY REVERSAL in EUR (downward) and USDX (upward) bears historical proportions. The last time the USDX has shown a similar monthly rebound (+4% at the end of a multi-month decline) was in December 2009 (part of a +20% rally in USD) and January 2005 (part of a 14% rally in USD).

EURUSD is seen remaining capped at $1.3180 before retreating gradually towards $1.2920 and $1.2770. GBPUSD faces $1.5640s as the intermediate resistance, a break of which could retest $1.5760. USDJPY regains 84 mainly on broadening JPY weakness as risk appetite improves across the board. Medium term outlook remains in favour of prolonged gains towards 87.20.


Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 17:52
temporal yes as Ezone as the biggest systemic risk gets a short breathing space ...but only a complete change in Ezone politics would be a game changer .... in fact as Ezone banks buy PIIGS troubled bonds the core of the problem increases.
I've been saying here only the FED can help...ok the IMF is worse than the FED .
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 17:50
Ashraf just tweeted this: I'll say it again: it is NOT a big deal for USA to say it will committ to helping EU expand EFSF via more dollars from IMF.

I'm not so much concerned about USA at his point. I'm trying to figure out what are the implications for the PIIGS and their bonds. In other words, what are the medium-term implication for EURUSD?
Does it mean, that to have more bailout money is positive for the EuroZone because the probability of bailout money shortage is lower? Or does it mean that the Germany will be less reluctant to help if there is the option to get money from IMF if a more help is needed for example in case of Portugal or Spain headwinds? Still not so clear.
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
13 years ago
Dec 1, 2010 17:38
QUOTE:
-------------8<--------------
NEW YORK, Dec 1 (IFR) - Reuters News revealed that the US Administration will back an increase in the IMF standby facility for the European states that they back-stopped last May when the Euro debt crisis was on the verge of a meltdown. According to the article a U.S. official was quoted "There are obviously some severe market problems. In May, it was Greece. This is Ireland and Portugal. If there is contagion that's a huge problem for the global economy."
Earlier in the day we heard that a US Treasury envoy is en-route to Europe for talks. Now the government is suggesting that the US would support an increase in the IMF's portion of the E250bn EFSF "It is up to the Europeans. We will certainly support using the IMF in these circumstances." EUR/USD soared 120 pips on the story but has ebbed into a 1.3135/55 sideways chop.
-------------8<--------------
So... how much will this change the fundamental landscape. Looking at the market reaction, it could be a game changer.
Report Reply
1...247724782479248024812482248324842485248624872488248924902491...3077