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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 10:52
Libor - OIS 3 month spread is at the levels last seen in August - May this year.

ANy ideas, anyone?
Fanetti Mazakura
Kyoto, Japan
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 9:40
catnip, see this chart. It clearly shows who is winning the game. Germany is doing very well compared to USA. USA is shit.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/economic_forecasting?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/ar/dailychartgrowthforecast
Fanetti Mazakura
Kyoto, Japan
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 9:35
catnip, you still do not get :)
Merkel is playing her game. She does not care about PIGS and other animals. She is happy with the weak euro as this stimulates German exports. Period.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 9:30
weak eur is good for eu, i do not think they really want to change it. but, below 1.3 make china upset, last time you know.

i guess ecb will only bailout as it is necessary.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 9:19
Merkel still balks at eurobonds. She will soon be burned at the stake. Eurobonds is the only solution to Euro crisis.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 8:21
I mentioned on twitter that Euro's failure to close above $1.34 is a technical justification of ingoing fundamental problems. once again, when euro touched 1.3420, many started screaming 1.36. it's incredible the premature calls that people still make even tjough theyv been trading for years.


EUROs LATEST DECLINE makes the transition from falling on rising US yields to falling on the latest credit rating warning, this time by Moodys (1h ago) placing Spain under review for a possible downgrade due to rising funding needs. Yesterdays announcement by S&P to place Belgium under review due to political indecision since June. US 10 Yr yields hit 3.50% in Tokyo, highest since May. 3.65% now stands as the 200-week MA, a technical measure last seen in October 2007. EURUSD ONCE AGAIN proves its inability to follow up on its gains as long as it fails to close above $1.3400. Tuesdays gravestone doji candle suggests 1.3170 is a possibility, especially if US Indus production data come show another upside surprise. EURGBP 2hr and 4hr charts showing suggesting a looming retest of 0.8420, with key support seen at 0.8360.

Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 7:55
Gary
the short catalyst is not (only) that PIIGS is still there ( and grow, Belgium) it is what I wrote in this thread it is for the first time ever cheaper to insure german corporate bonds for defaault than german bunds. That is a red flag.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 7:43
We're having problems with the listserver so the IMTs still cannot be mailed out from my website. IMTs:http://bit.ly/338li


Will have to follow me on twitter for breaking news and analysis

twitter.com/alaidi

Ashraf
Yoni
Turku, Finland
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 7:36
What's up?
GaryD
United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Dec 15, 2010 6:28
There's the EUR short catalyst... Moody's just cut Spain outlook. $1.30 here we come....
Spain CDS have been falling since the end of November, helping EUR/USD till now. That's likely to change.
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