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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 17:31
EURO DEEPENS SELLOFF, partly on overall USD strength but mainly on resurging Eurozone debt worries on 1) Portugals announcement to issue EUR 750 mln and EUR 1.25 bln in 2 bonds maturities next week and 2) EUs pressing ahead with its plan to spread the burden of EU bank failures to senior bondholders ie haircuts and that no bank is too big to fail. The fact that the ECB is also pushing for this idea (that bank bond holders should take a loss) is relativelyis surprising because the central bank opposed the idea of sovereign bond holders taking haircuts. That is the reason to the 20-bp jump in Portuguese bond spreads to 4-week highs. I said on Monday EURUSD needed to close the week above the $1.3460s ie the 55-week MA in order to invalidate the downtrend. This has not happened and the bearishness remains and so does my prelim outlook for $1.27. Meanwhile, some pvt economists expect NFP tomorrow to exceed 300k, w/ some saying 450K. I will post my Video Mkt Analysis shortly.


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Ashraf
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 16:23
a couple of Eur bulls went belly up...they'll never learn. Yet before EURUSD goes 1,27 we'll see
some 100 pip recovery before NFP thus long 1,3000
djellal
LAUSANNE, Switzerland
Posts: 531
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 15:42
CAUTIOUS E500 MIO ON BID AT 1.3050$
fxsuperpro
United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 15:20
@orange-trad..lol
fxsuperpro
United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 14:24
now short E/$ 1.3150 stop 1.3510 tp 1.2500 13 lots..sell on rallies.
subway90
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 6:06
strong support coming in around 3100/20 area... weekly close below 3100 level would likely open up downside with targets of 2750/2800...

for today... break back up above 3170 would see Euro gain some ground toward 3280/3300 resistance.. daily close above 3300 would shift focus back to 3430/50 resistance...

still expecting a bit more of sideways before taking a direction... maybe NFP tom can be the catalyst for a breakout... :)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2011 23:28
I listen to what commentators say, only the ones I consider are intelligent and impartial, but I tend to make my own mind up in the light of a lifetime of experience. Think for thyself is my motto in this business.

Many commentators are thinking ahead to a comparitively short timeframe. I tend to look at the world on a large timeframe/perspective. There are certain things that cannot happen and if they cannot happen they won't happen.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2011 20:51
I just watched John Taylor of FX Concepts on Bloomberg. Said the euro is going to parity. Also, countries will not so much fall out of EZ but be kicked out, so some kind of euro break up will happen.

I also watched Ashraf's CNBC interview yesterday saying no way the USD could rally 30%, even against the euro, so parity is out of question, despite more downside. Also, I can't recall where, but Ashraf said no way the euro will break up.

Now, this is a classic case of what will happen when you stick a slice of bread with the buttered side upwards on the back of a cat and drop them.

BTW, I especially loved the last remark on the CNBC interview. 'An impassioned currency discussion' 'With myself' LOL
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2011 19:54
My latest article on EURUSD
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/euro-new-year-more-challenges.asp

Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Jan 5, 2011 15:56
Gunjack, depends what timeframe you have in mind. I have noted your "definitley" and your "sure"

Its debateable whether the world will survive, let alone the precarious euro. If US carry on being the inventors of everything out of hell which is quickly and efficiently imported across the world then I see no hope for anyone. I still say genetic modification to leaders is the only longer term solution :-) The scientists are almost there !
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