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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:59
Well catnip you said a lot of other stuff as well which simply did not happen (I made wrong calls as well) so I scratch my head why you point that 1.3750 would be reached today which was likely anyway due to normal range behavior?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:56
I said we'll likely see 1,375 today : I said that yesterday without spending a single glance at any chart. Its a waste of time.
If there is no lifeboat left try floe or grasp a straw .
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:56
DaveO

I have no issue with that

I am here to learn, share info and opinion, hopefully to the benefit, not detriment of others.


Xaron,

Theoretically, a third way comes up immediatley to my mind. Let's say the US economy DOES exhibit growth rates of 5 per cent a year. You know, currency valuation is a relative thing...
Boli Mekura
Guam
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:50
usikpa, you confuse value and price.
if USD appreciates pricewise, then all other things equal, these commodity prices would be even higher lets say in EU or in UK or in Egypt or in Tunisia and so and so on.
You must be implying that if USD value increases, then it is reasonable to expect the commodity prices to fall.
However I do not see how USD value could increase with the mentioned US debt below in the article. US is bankrupt and I am with Dave to listen to what Richard Russell is saying.
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:46
usikpa, that's a possibility. The only problem is that the FED does NOT want to see the Dollar strengthens. They never will be able to pay back their debts nor to attract move treasury buyers. The only way would be double digit interest rates or a devaluation of the Dollar. Guess which way they have chosen? ;)
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:44
Richard Russell has certainly stood the test of time. I would rather listen to him than many and especially our "expert" fundamentalists on this forum.

If we were stupid enough to actually trade all the fundamental calls made in the last year we would probably be broke. The only way to trade consistently profitably is with a personal system to handle price action. Charts do not lie if they are read with an unbiased open mind. If you choose to follow economists and forex fundie barkers you will probably die a painful death.

You can integrate a fundamental bias with your technical expertise but if you have no technical expertise you are nothing more than a ship stuck in fog with the GPS and radar down and no one who knows anything about seamanship.
usikpa
Moscow, Russia
Posts: 77
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:43
Lots of interesting questions, Putko.

Lots of issues to put into perspective, especially for a long term investor.

Allow me just one immediate correction to your post. Arguably, one would presume that ONE of the ways this USD denominated commodity inflation in the World could be stopped is when USD APPRECIATES.
Putko Mafani
Cape Town, South Africa
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:35
Catnip, we are talking about real yields here.
No one is tupid enough to go buy US asstets with an yield of 5% when the inflation is 7% and the real yield is negative 2%. Are clear about that?
Putko Mafani
Cape Town, South Africa
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:32
usikpa, and you think these commodity prices are at these level without a reason. And that USD could rise in the long run? And you think that inflation in the USA is below 1% and even below 0.5%
And you think that these nominal yields of 3.8% are real? f you strip the inflation component (I mean real inflation), the yield are negative.
Fed is supporting the US treas. market. If not, the US treas. would sell-off and yield would go towards 5+ % to compensate for inflation.
The other day, the Fed became the largest holder of US treas., surpassing China.

So you still think that EURUSD of 2.00 and above is not possible? Come on.
Only way this USD denominated commodity inflation in the World could be stopped is when USD devalues. And the markets expect that. Otherwise all countries in the World risk following the Egypt scenario. Do you want that in your country???
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2011 11:31
some self proclaimed fx traders don't understand the importance of yields and neither the importance of interbank liquidity crunch documented in SHIBOR EONIA LIBOR. If UST yield goes up and Eurbund down it is silly to claim EURUSD 2 USD. Absolutely silly.
If China is cash strapped it is silly to claim China commands the FED. Absolutely silly.
The FED is in the driver's seat. It matters not at all whether one likes that.