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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 4, 2010 14:02
Comments: 347
View Hot-Chart
This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

What's Next for Aussie?

 
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rcgusa
Texas, United States
Posts: 1
15 years ago
May 18, 2010 20:51
This chart is 10 days old and out dated information, how about a update?

"While this does not necessarily mean the RBA is done for the year, a pause into the next 3 months would be sufficient to pare longs from AUD. AUDUSD is now to 0.9080, a break of which would test the next key support at 0.8980."

We are way below this, so where is the bottom?
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
May 18, 2010 11:07
In the EUR thread, Stationdealer said:


"Frankly i dont need to know anything more, Jim has spoken people wakey wakey stop beliving in rumours and do what needed to be done. I've already liquidated all my shorts and now in long on euro, pound, kiwi, aussie and oil"

[Stationdealer UKMay 18, 2010 09:28 GMT]

@Stationdealer: May I ask you specifically why you are long Aussie?

Bearing in mind what Ashrad said below, does this mean you think equities will start rising again, or do you think the Aussie will decouple from them?
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 32
15 years ago
May 18, 2010 6:02
Ashraf

Is it time to buy the Aussie at 87 to USD for a long term trade ?

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 18, 2010 1:45
RBA minutes out at 1:30 am GMT will give rationale for change in language into dovish directive


$AUDUSD hourly shows sufficient mneouvring from 0.8780 to 0.87

Ashraf
emma_watson
New York, United States
Posts: 1
15 years ago
May 17, 2010 11:37
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montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
May 17, 2010 11:13
Thsnks Ashraf. I was forgetting about the equities/risk correlation.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 17, 2010 0:49
Mont, Aussie usually drops on falling equities, but the fact that the RBA hinted at a pause (which we mentioned many times over past 2 weeks as well as as on this HotChart) is dragging it especially lower.

Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
May 16, 2010 14:35
I don't quite understand why the Aussie is considered to be overvalued.
Looking back over the last 10 years or so, I am wondering why the Aussie would not be a stonking good _buy_ at these levels, rather than the opposite.

As you say, employment is steady. Interest rates are already the highest in the industrialised world, and could go higher. Gold is soaring. Admittedly the other minerals aren't, but even so, the fundamentals for Australia seem pretty good I'd think. Or if not, why not?

What are the fundamentals at this point in time that should be driving the Aussie even lower?
I certainly don't see why it should tank like the Euro.
Nicky
Melbourne, Australia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 13, 2010 5:12
Hi Ashraf and all the other gurus, aussie has been range trading for the past 3 days, even though euro and pound are continually dropping. Personally, I am very bearish for aussie, since aussie is a very overvalued currency. From ashraf's IMT, he has mentioned that aussie has a medium term target of 0.8750 at the end of quarter, however there has been speculation about RBA that it is going to continue to raise interest rate backed up by the new job growth and steady unemployment of 5.4%. So are we going to expect a retracement from the 0.8870 recent low? How high will the aussie go before it finally will drop like euro and pound.

Thank you
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
May 11, 2010 13:33
Every time I think it can't go lower, it does.
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