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Secular Currency Performance
Why the dollar has outperformed and which currencies have fared the worst. A secular FX performance measure since the beginning of H2 and YTD.
What's your view on the USD/JPY and Euro in the next six months!?
Shorting GBPCHF is still a great trade. Swiss economy is doing much better than the Eurozone, which makes CHF more attractive. i dont think SNB will cut rates any time soon. UK and GBP will continue to deteriorate as I had expected at the beginning of the year.
As for the next 6 months... any recovery in the global economy is likely to be more rewarding for CHF than GBP. But i expect global macro weakness and financial stress in the US to continue. Cable remains a great short with targets at 1.75 and 1.71 before year end. CHF may be best played against AUD and CAD.
Ashraf