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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Oct 29, 2008 19:59
Comments: 6
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Reflationary Trade Here to Stay

The combination of market and macroeconomic elements will maintain global monetary policy in a rare unison of easing mode (again typical of global recession), hence, paving the way for the reflationary trade (explained below).
 
   
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Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Nov 4, 2008 3:36
Thanks Ashraf , i bought the Aussie at .65 five years ago .. Maybe all sell it out and pick it up again in the low .50-.53 area if it gets that low again ..

Cheers

Fank
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Nov 4, 2008 3:13
Frank, it depends when you bought them and how much your losses account for the size of your equity. Im looking at 55-57. 50 bps rate cut coming up.

Ashraf
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Nov 4, 2008 1:40
Hi Ashraf , will we get a good bouce higher from here for the Aussie dollar ? I have a lot of Aussie dollars should i change them back to US dollars ?



Thanks

Frank
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Oct 30, 2008 5:06
Thanks Nick.

Ed, short answer is YES, it has more to go. It's about time the selling has tapered off after 11 weeks of steep declines. It's too early in the bear cycle to to pronounce the end of the sell-off. We should soon get the much anticipiated rebound (at least for a week and not a 10% day move) that could lift the major indices by at least 20% before a resumption of the bear and fresh yen bullishness. Bull market rallies have typically lasted for weeks if not months (like between March and May). If one is expecting or hoping for prolonged equity selling to make money by buying yen and dollars, they should want a decent bear market rebound that will herald the next slide.
Nick E.
California, United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Oct 29, 2008 22:55
you have been spot on. I really appreciate, respect and promote your work. Thanks again...
Ed
United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Oct 29, 2008 20:42
Hi Ashraf, great article. Do you feel the deleveraging (and bearish US equities) still has a ways to go? Seems to have tapered off.

Thanks,

Ed
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