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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 24, 2008 3:56
Comments: 677
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

Daily EURO chart of 18 years of cyclical developments in finance & politics
 
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fxtrader8
California, United States
Posts: 13
15 years ago
Jan 17, 2010 16:38
I accidently posted this in the GBP/USD forum sorry about that.

The 1.4280(200 day moving average) and 1.4230 (lows of December 22, 2009) will be key in Euro/USD this week for more fresh downside. It would be a break of off a big Bear Flag Pattern with objective down to the 1.3500 area over the next few months. Adding to shorts shorts into 1.4430-14450 looks tempting.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:41
@PippedOff: You said "The only huge movements were cable and euro, the two trash pairs. Aussie, which actually has some game behind it's name, was only moved 15 pips."

Did you look at AUD/JPY? It lost almost 100 pips on the day. I should know. I lost most off them!
(ouch).
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:38
@Pipped: Well, again for what it is worth, the 19:00 hourly bar on EUR/USD is a fairly large bullish pin, and I am not surprised about the subsequent upswing. However, I think (hope) that it is just a pullback (chance to re-short a bit higher, if one wants to look at it that way).

That said, I don't take this price action malarkey as quite seriously as I used to and it can fail just as often as it works. However, you will often see it working in the short-term, especially on little pull-backs (if it is one) like this.

I work off 1H charts minimum (I sometimes snatch a look at the 15M just to see where in the "cycle" of the hour it is before placing or closing trades), and daily or weekly for main direction and for "levels".
So after every 2 or 3 down hour-bars, I'd expect an up-bar or two. Admittedly that 20:00 bar is very bullish looking, so maybe it will carry on up for a bit. I'd still be (eventually) looking for a shorting opportunity next week.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:32
Mont-

It is what it is. 30 pips on cable and 50 pips on euro, a drift to take advantage of illiquid market. They'll probably gap everything up on the open as if nothing ever happened today.

The only huge movements were cable and euro, the two trash pairs. Aussie, which actually has some game behind it's name, was only moved 15 pips.

The trash should be gapped down 1/2 this drift up on the open Monday.
montmorency
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:24
Well, having just looked at Ashraf's YouTube broadcast today, and thinking about his finishing note about the USDX, I looked at the daily and weekly chart for this, and guess what (thinking in "price action" mode for the moment): it's a very clear bullish pin bar (inverted hammer). And it's at the end of a downswing (where it is more significant than otherwise).

This is just a comment, and not (of course) any kind of recommendation.
pippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:18
Whose bidding 1.4387 for the Euro when they could have had it for 1.4339 45 minutes ago?

Must be a bargain...
pippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:09
Apparantly whatever the issues were which were bothering the euro just a few hours ago have all slipped away along with this 47 pip drift higher into 1.4380 in 40 minutes. At this pace it will be 1.4563 three trading hours from now.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 20:36
@mont: I can't believe it. My short euro was filled closed on the low print of the day , 1.4339. Twenty minutes later euro back at 1.4374-AMAZING. I'll see it again come Monday.

Yeah, with NY closed, low liquidity, you can definately count on the Stop-Running game to appear
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 20:34
VIX is well above that Bullish GAPDOWN we warned about on Monday. heres that Monday charthttp://bit.ly/4v4wVb Thats how you stay ahead of the game by 2-4 days instead of 3-4 hours


Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 20:31
BTW, and for what it's worth, my "prediction" of January 13, 2010 21:38, for EUR/USD, which was based entirely on price-action (a bearish daily pin bar or inverted hammer), worked out reasonably well, with a partial fall the next day, and a bigger one today.

Today's bar is looking pretty bearish to me, and on that basis, next week should also be down, with perhaps a bit of a bounce first. However, we have the US holiday on Monday to distort the market.

For what it's worth this week's weekly bar is a bearish pin bar (almost) although it is not ideally placed (it should be at the end of an upswing, whereas it's on the end of a consolidation. Still I will be looking for shorting opportunities next week.

This is not any kind of recommendation.

Trade safe; stops and money management always.
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