EUR Trade Index 18-Year Chart

@mont-gbp is nothing but a pure momentum play. It certainly received some goosing from eur/gbp. I'm not really so that one isn't ripe for a short. between eur and gbp, I usually pick the one based contra off the last big move in eur/gbp. That would mean shorting gbp as if there is a rebound in eur/gbp, it would benefit euro to upside.

Im gonna short aussie at 2:01 pm ny time, after the longs receive their four days worth of premium. aussie has looked very weak, and I don't suspect gold to hang around 1137.5 either. Gonna short one lot of gold with a limit at 126.3

@said: 1.4483 to 1.4472. what kind of range is that?

@rkkashmir: Well, from a purely price-action point of view, between cable and EUR/USD, I think EUR/USD is going to fall first (if either of them do).

The daily is beginning to form a nice bearish pin bar. Not sure if the level it's at is all that significant to be honest, which worries me slightly. Nevertheless, IF it's going to fall, tomorrow MIGHT be the day.
Also there has been some good bearish action today (Sadly I missed it; most of my scalps were on cable).


Cable's daily bar on the other hand looks far too bullish; looks still to have some steam left in it and I think "it" wants or "they" want it to get to 1.64, or they will have a fair stab at it.

Getting back to EUR/USD (why has no one come up with a nickname for that - any suggestions?), IF it falls, then, again on a daily bar basis, I could see it going down to the 1.43 range, say 1.4320 - 1.4260, but that would be over several days, if at all, and is probably far too ambitious.

This is just personal opinion, and says nothing about the fundamentals, and is not a recommendation.

For this to happen, the fundamentals have got to trigger it, but in a strange kind of way I believe that the market is as much a part of the fundamentals as, say, the frame of mind of the BOE Monetary Policy Committee, or whether the Chairman of the BOE had a good breakfast or not, or whether Bernanke gets riled at one too many "Helicopter Ben"jibes, and comes out with something hawkish. The market will decide, and it may decide that now is the time to sell off. One thing, it's very quiet out there.....as they say in those bad World War II films, it's too quiet.


Trade safely - money management always.

Said-

Have only been able to scalp, then run for the exits before getting steamrolled. Long USD has not been the place to be.

The positives I see are Usd/chf hanging in their with a long base. It's going to breakout eventually. I was hoping on the upside. However, not so confident after seeing what happened to usd/cad today.

usd/jpy also hangin' in. However, that thing can lose 75 pips in a heartbeet, and at that point would apparantly be abandon time.

eur still not impressive on the upside. However, gbp can lend it some of it's muscle from the last two days.

What are you thinking. Dollar bullish not feeling so right anymore.

Good trading...

Ashraft,

I think us followers here perhaps could use a little pep talk from you. Obviosly most people here are trying uds bullish trades and they are not working out. First the euro, then usd/jpy, and today the breakout of the gbp. Nearly everything I am reading off-site states Usd will continue to fall. I think three days in a row now.

Your analysis, IMT and tweets lend me to believe you are Usd bullish with the Vix, yield spreads and other things.

Any chance you can help calm the boards here with a clarification through all the noise?

Thank you so much.

@Pippedoff:

Cld you pls explain to all of us what you mean by manipulation.
I saw when the eurusd dropped like a hot bread and was wandering what was happening. It dropped by almost 100 pips and I was checking my calendar to see which news release was out...which speaker was speaking...and there was no news or no speaker...cld it be that buyers of eurusd were just taking profit why the sudden drop?