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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 26, 2009 18:43
Comments: 30
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

How Gold Links Treasuries & the Dollar

Tracking treasury yields can be helpful in dissecting the USD-GOLD relationship.
 
Serge Lacroix
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 30, 2009 7:14
Hi Asjraf.

What is your latest "Call" on the USD/CAD

Tks Serge
Frank
Vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 30, 2009 6:06
Ashraf

What's your view on the New Zealand dollar short term and long term ?

Thanks

Frank
Waqar
Lahore, Pakistan
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2009 23:58
Hi Ashraf,

once again great call about cable being capped at 1.440.

What are your thoughts regarding the Euro/dollars reaction to a bad number tomorrow as it has already fallen quite a bit.


Regards

Waqar.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2009 20:52
HAMISH, here's the easier answer for cable: 1.4380-1.4400 trend line resistance remains a big barrier to overcome, while 1.4070 remains foundation. The rest is noise.

ROB, that's a very good question. By the way risk aversion has been taking place, USD and JPY are to be the winners in terms of a very dismal number. But JUST IN CASE, I would go with the BUY YEN trade against GBP, NZD and CAD if GDP comes in worse than 5.0% decline. And yes, considering CAD GDP will also be released at same time as US GDP (8.30 am EST), we could see RISING USDCAD back towards 1.2550. CAD GDP expected -0.5% m/m from -0.1%.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2009 19:38
Hi Ashraf,

Other than USD/JPY, would you say that news of terrible U.S. GDP tomorrow has the ability to further the declines in EUR/USD and continue to strengthen the USD across the board? Or is that somehow built into the large (risk aversion) declines seen today? Seems like USD would also have a lot of strength against the CAD with news of bad GDP tomorrow, would you agree? Thanks for your thoughts.

hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 29, 2009 18:40
Ashraf,this comment written 18.40hrs uk. What on earth is keeping the GBP up, currently 1.4280 ?? Have I missed something??
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2009 17:18
Rob, as i said earlier today it's combination of broad USD weakness (except against JPY) as risk appetite improves. $1.3380 may be broken which leads to $1.3420.

ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2009 17:00
Hi Ashraf,
Can you give targets for EUR/USD in short-term?
I've noticed USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/JPY all advancing with equities today - any thoughts on why EUR/USD seems to be holding relatively steady in comparison?
Thanks
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2009 15:03
Thanks Ashraf,
Yes, that was my review on Amazon. Also, saw a person on the NYC subway reading an enormous technical analysis book, so I wrote down your website on a piece of paper and handed it to him.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 28, 2009 14:55
Hi Rob,

Thanks for your review on Amazon (I assume that was you). At the December meeting, the FOMC said it was evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities in addition to purchasing large quantities of agency debt and mortgage backed securities. I think the Fed is more likely to communicate its willingness to buy lt treasuries only as a defensive plan of action i.e. in the event of renewed deterioration in financial markets. The more likely course of action is for the Fed to shed fresh light on its intention to start the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), which includes supporting the issuance of securities backed by various commercial loans (auto, student, credit card and small business loans). FX markets may curtail some of the dollars recent losses as a knee-jerk reaction to finding out that the Fed would not start purchasing long term treasuries (but still considering doing so). But the Feds measure to maintain interest rates exceptionally lowfor some time remains a fundamental reminder for the market to sell the US currency at each bout of improved risk appetite as zero interest rates serve as a reliable foundation for carry trades.