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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 3, 2009 16:31
Comments: 29
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Aussie's Risk-Based Bounce

Despite another big rate cut, Aussie seen carrying prolonged gains along with further pullback in the VIX.
 
Ced
London, UK
Posts: 12
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 22:10
Hi Ashraf,

At the end of this evenings seminar at Bloomberg in London, you told me that tomorrows 1pm speech by Trichet can be very important.
What impact his speech can have on EURUSD and GBPEUR?
Also, still believe in GBPEUR parity in Q1?

Ced
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 17:10
ROB, NOk fundamentals are one of the best as far as trade and budget balances as well as the outlook for interest rates (yield spread being one of them). And yes, NOK seen positive against both EUR and USD.

SAJIDA, GBPCHF may show a new bout of selling towards 1.55 but not for a while. Even though GBP fundamentals are week, the Swiss authorities have become increasingly vocal against CHF strength.

Ashraf
sajida
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 15:58
Hello Ashraf,

Do you think pound will see a lower bottom agaisnt swiss franc this quarter ? Thanks
sajida
Connecticut, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 15:57
Hello Ashraf,

Do you think pound will see a lower bottom agaisnt swiss franc this quarter ? Thanks
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 15:46
Thanks a lot Ashraf! It makes sense why the pairs you mentioned are better than USD/JPY.
Now are you saying buy NOK against the USD or EUR. Also, what is your concept of "long-term" for NOK - 6 months, 1 year...? Is this for a long-term carry trade coupled with fundamentals in favor of NOK? The spread is enormous! Thanks for your response!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 14:53
Rob, A better way to play a falling VIX is going long AUDJPY, AUDUSD. Yesterday's article showed both AUDCAD and AUDjpy hit or neared the illustrated target. selling USDCAD is also another way to bank on improved risk appetite (temporary improvement), But here's a long term buy and hold: BUY NORWEGIAN KRONE and dont touch it again.


Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2009 14:13
Hi Ashraf,

With VIX going lower, is that a good enough signal to send USD/JPY higher today, despite your long-term call of 75-80? Also, with risk appetite on the rise as a result of equities higher, etc., do you see EUR/USD going lower to sub-128 simply based on better US fundamentals, and not related to risk appetite. Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2009 17:52
ROB,

The BoJ purchases will be bad enough for JPY but mainly against AUD and EUR until markets gets cautious again ahead of US payrolls. EURJPY seen targetting 116.80--117.20 but careful with your stop placement. Watch Eurozone services PMI at 9.00 GMT. Any improvement or within expectations is very good for EURJPY.
Rob
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2009 16:54
Hi Ashraf,

Does BoJ buying stakes in banks mean JPY loses across the board? Thoughts and targets on EUR/JPY would be appreciated. Thanks