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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 7, 2009 23:41
Comments: 50
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Golden Chance from FX-Equity Play

When FX lead equities
 
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 18:53
hi, despite your comments to TG surely cable will slip back to around 1.5030 should S&P closes below
882-885 ??
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 17:51
TG, the bulk of the sterling weakness is occuring against JPY and NOT against USD. As i mentioned in past 2 days, buying the YEN is the preferred option during risk aversion than buying USD. So best to continue shorting NZDJPY, AUDJPY, USDJPY, while keeping hedges in short AUDNZD.


Ashraf
TG
Singapore
Posts: 112
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 17:09
Hi Ashraf,

Workbook very concise, thanks.

cable is holding up, as equities are coming off strongly, why?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 16:08
ROB, USDCAD ois much more correlated with S&P than oil is with S&P500. looks like oil is disregarding the oil numbers. Look for USDCAD to start initial target at 1.1710. the WorkBook has more detail and about 10 new charts. will give access to owners of the original workbook

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 14:51
Hey Ashraf,

Does USD/CAD correlate better with S&P 500 than oil. I remember your chart from a week or so ago with S&P correlation, just wondering what CAD might do if we get a commodity/oil rally from money pulled out of equities.
Also, is the workbook the same as the one you had at the NY Expo? Thanks a lot.
f
Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 13:18
thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 13:17
f, I think the threat of renewed risk aversion will continue to dominate the downward trend in CADCHF and outweigh any CHF selling by the SNB. Note the selling is done mainly against EUR. i expect to see 0.85-0.86 by year end of Q3.

Ashraf
f
Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
12 years ago
May 13, 2009 7:45
Hello Ashraf, I trust all is well!

I was wondering what your take was on CAD.CHF for both the coming weeks and to year end.

It it sitting around all time lows and with the Swiss waging war against a strong franc... do you think it is a candidate for a big move up? or a candidate to rested 0.85 levels?

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
May 12, 2009 17:55
Rob, this varies, but short NZDJPY and NZDUSD is a good start, while sending back cable towards $1.5030 is viable (after today's failure above $1.5350).


and it seems the short NZDUSD and NZDJPY is back in play as these were never convinced about the recovery, hence remained below 0.6095 and 0.5930. looks like we will see 0.5060 and 0.5780. CADJPY is very volatile so you may be better off with buying USDCAD on risk aversion

see my IMT next.


Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
12 years ago
May 12, 2009 17:22
Hey Ashraf,

Any thoughts on the best risk aversion trades between GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/USD, NZD/JPY CAD/JPY? Or any others?

Do you think CAD might hold up better than the rest with oil hitting $60? Especially if commodities start to rally despite a drop in equities. Thanks