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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 15, 2009 2:19
Hi Ashraf , it was very interesting reading in your book about the corellation of the fed chiefs' backgrounds and the implication for the dollars movement . The model is currently playing out exactly as expected . From time to time you hear of 'experts' proclaiming that the dollar will for way below the 70 mark to figures such as the 60's and even 50's.In your opinion is this a probable or even possible scenario within say the next year or two.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 15, 2009 0:27
Rob, the webinar can be found here but sound isnt that great http://webinars.hamzeianalytics.com/AL_061309.wmv

Trsy purchases occur every 2 days intermittently. sometimes around 10 EST and sometimes around 1 pm EST. the purchases are usually reported by newswire services. Modest dollar selling occurs when these sales are reported but the big news is on June 24 FOMC when the FOMC may reveal the announcment of more purchases BEYOND the planned $300 bln.

Nets Gold support around 920.

Ho, GBPAUD would only rebound sharply if stock selling is very pronounced

Ashraf
Ho
New York, United States
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 20:31
Ashraf,

Can you analysis gbp/aud for me, is it uptrend to target 2.9+? What is the downside it can go. Tks. Look like gbp/aud pretty reach bottom?
Cappy
United States
Posts: 19
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 18:45
Hi Ashraft,

Is there a way to hear your Webinar from yesterday?

Thanks,

Cappy
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 18:39
If that was an ambiguous question - a better way to phrase it may be - are the Fed's treasury purchases already built into the dollars decline, because they simply spoke of it?
Rob
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 14, 2009 17:43
Hey Ashraf,

I missed your webinar because I was working, I'm sure it was well received by everyone. Is there any chance of seeing it online at this point?

Also, is there a correlation with the "exact" time or day that the Fed buys Treasuries and a weakening in the Dollar? I see the Fed is scheduled to buy 4 more times over the next 2 weeks. I'm wondering if it's the actual buying of the bonds that kills the dollar, or just all the talk of it, like on March 18th.

And will treasury purchases cause the dollar to decline in the coming weeks, even if stocks lose upward momentum? Or does risk aversion with stocks declining supercede Fed purchasing treasuries?

I'm very much focused on Gold's move to $940 - do you see support at this level?

Thanks for your help as always.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 13, 2009 21:59
partisan, im more bullish EUR than CAD. Euro to continue acting as the anti-dollar when the Fed continues purchasing trsys. CAD may drag USD back to 1.05 or 1.06 but i still favour EUR. Latvia, deleveraging and all may drag EUR below 1.37 but unlikely to see decline below 1.3

Ashraf
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
15 years ago
Jun 13, 2009 10:52
Ashraf -

Apolgies for not including the CAD in my last email re refuge currencies and recovery currencies. Your thoughts on its prospects in both of these instances would also be most helpful.

The CAD is also a alrge holding of Merk's.

Many thanks,

John
partisan
London, UK
Posts: 43
15 years ago
Jun 13, 2009 10:16
Ashraf,

Many thanks. The one major currency I still have a question for you is the Euro. How do you think it would fare as a refuge currency in another deleveraging/markets crisis ? And how do you see its prospects as a recovery currency?

I ask partly as the Merk Hard Currency Fund has the major portion of its portfolio in the Euro - it sees the Eurozone as being less inflation-prone because of their more conservative approach to stimulus.

With very many thanks again,

John
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 12, 2009 20:56
partisan, the nokkie is doing very well and id think it will drop at the next wave of selling but NOT as hard as it did in H2 of last year. and if it does decline, id expect it to recovery fast. THE ONLY TROUBLESOME POINT FOR NORWAY IS how bad will Sweden do if Latvia devalues and a baltic crisis ensues. We shall see.

Ashraf
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