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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 29, 2009 18:15
Comments: 71
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup

The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world.
 
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Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:10
Yes, Thanks so much Ashraf! I was thinking GBP/USD was oversold until I read your comment, as I began the NY session. Shorted it late, but in the black! Thanks again. And please don't laugh at me for not doubling my position on USD/CAD - still waiting to catch up. Fine, you can laugh.
Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 15:05
This is turning to be a lovely short.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 14:55
Agree Ashraf , cable eyeing at least 1.6450
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 14:23
ashraf, im not a trader (yet)
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 14:10
spec, come on lets get to trading. USDCAD wants to retest 1.1590s and cable is a screaming sell eyeing 1.16430s. can we make this more obvious.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 14:06
hsbc bank will be increasing its 2,3 and 5 year fixed mortgage rates in the UK in july after its competitors had already started hiking. medium term rates going up will put pressure on house price in the uk for the next few quarters. it is no suprise demand went up recently as fixed rates reached historic lows here. i expect uk housing to drop down gradually after the summer period - another bearish factor for the pound in the coming quarters.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 12:07
may i add, we are being mentally brainwashed that a recovery is near and things will start to improve. yes..well GDP may start to not contract but that means nothing.

whilst we have an increase in money supply and more measures for protection, we may not enter a depression but a very long recession where employment and consumption will remain very weak for a long period to come. mainly because the us will have to change its way and therefore global demand will remain weak. something unusual will need to happen eg war (hopefully not) or an invention to increase demand.

we are currently at an uncertain and manipulated times where corruption is still very much in force some way or another.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 12:00
its really quite simple guys, INVESTORS ARE NOT RATIONAL A LOT of the time.

They over react much of the time. Furthermore, herding is very strong in this market as lots of investors have no clue about the future but want to make some quite bucks so go with the flow. this extrapolates trends which brings us to over-shooting and under-shooting. I personally feel that much of the pairs eg eurdollar has overshot due to investors herding and not for the reason of yield differential.

david bloom global head of fx, hsbc would agree with me here 100%!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 11:33
jamshed. thks. i guess the existing charts capability are not good enough. hopefully this may change.

Francis Can i start charging for all those questions? Dow seen around 7,800-8000 year end and USDJPY to fall as low as 85 before briefly regaining 100.


Ashraf
Francis
GuangZhou, China
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jun 30, 2009 11:17
Hi Ashraf,

From basically also has the related technical graph to look that the analysis is very precise.

Relatively speaking so looks like the currency which the words when the time comes most do not profit to be able to be EURSo my questions is: The words which looking from the second half of the year which month do you think in and the relative price to sell EUR/USD Quite appropriate ?

and the other questions is: Dow was already Rise Many In March which is 30% and more.

What do you think Dow In the second half of the year's performance? 8200-8600 You are refer to

short-term the performance ? USD/JPY Whether there is do you think in the second half of the year

the opportunity test 100 or more high? if yes Which price then suits in and the time enters the arena

and has? Under compares you to think that which one currency will make these two kind to be more

suitable ?

Many Thanks & Regards,

Francis
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