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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jul 28, 2009 15:51
Comments: 35
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Dollar Stabilization & Stock/Gold Ratio

Dollar weakness getting too excessive, while the rising S&P500 / Gold ratio is nearing its peak.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 20:21
spec, the FTSE rallly (today and this morning) remained part of the BoE decision to expand stimulus i.e. good for stocks, good for guilty prices, bad for guilt yields and bad for sterling.

Ashraf
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 18:50
ashraf, sorry was a mistake.

clearly there are other factors that move stocks too. yesterday ftse advances despite boe gloominess.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 17:14
rajesh, the pattern was broken because BOTH the unemp rate AND the payrolls were positive for the jobs picture. the fact we had FIRST DECLINE in unemp rate since Apr 08 was so USD positive that it gave hopes for a potential US-led recovery.

Spec, unwinding Fed easing policy is NOT "obviously" good for stocks. we're still in recession, consumer still badly hurt and stocks want prolonged easing.

Ashraf
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 16:55
rajesh good point.

it could be a sign that FED may unwind USD negative policy measures and therefore hike rates and less/stop debt monetization. This is obviously stocks positive.
rajesh68
Singapore
Posts: 60
12 years ago
Aug 7, 2009 16:33
Hi Ashraf,

One thing I could not understand. Good employment numbers should increase the risk taking and this should weaken the USD. That means EURUSD should go high. Today though stocks have gone high, due to good NFM numbers, EURUSD kept on coming down. PLease clarify. - Rajesh
redstone
UK
Posts: 25
12 years ago
Aug 5, 2009 17:50
Thanks spec. so does that mean the aussie will strenghten again soon ?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 5, 2009 17:29
redstone, its called overshooting and bubble formation.

looking at the last 12 months cycles and inflation adjusted earnings, we are mirroring the great depression cyclim but with worse comparable earnings. the only thing different is expansion in money supply which did not occur back then.

redstone
UK
Posts: 25
12 years ago
Aug 5, 2009 17:01
Hi Ashraf am panicing, the Aussie is getting hammered by all currencies. How long will this continue any idea ? How can the GPB backed by bankrupt banks no gold, hardly any industry, no commodities a failing stalinist govt rising bankruptcies etc just keep going UP !
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
12 years ago
Aug 5, 2009 16:52
Thanks Ashraf - Also I'll try another computer, I use a mac.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Aug 5, 2009 14:55
Rob, i had been expecting a bigger rebound in USD before more protracted losses in Q4 but this is not happening because signs of global recovery are broadening. Not sure what to tell you about the IMT link. Have you tried another computer?

Ashraf