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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 10, 2009 16:34
Comments: 611
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Don't Forget the Yen

Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 15:19
USDJPY hit my 89.30 target mainly due to USD weakness. I see rebound limited to 90.50. Look for any sources of risk aversion (disappointing Aussie figs) for renewed test of 89 and 88.60. But for now, I look to buy JPY against EUR, CAD and AUD.

Ashraf
Dan
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 14:12
Ashraf, what's your updated target on USD/JPY?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 10:06
Rob, you said the following "again, if EUR weakens further against the USD, I suppose CAD could also leading to a rise in EUR/CAD" that is not necessarily the case. CAD had a very strong run in last 6 weeks until 10 days ago. weekly eurcad still looks bearish but is a very volatile. the weekly highs are getting lower. and oil's reluctance to regain 80.50 remaisn CAD negative.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 1:47
Hey Ashraf,

Not to change the topic of your article, but would you say that the weekly downtrend is actually intact. I remember this from several hot-charts ago.

CAD rallied incredibly today, with no good reason I can see. I'm trying to discern if this gain in CAD against EUR is due to CAD's strength, because it doesn't seem to be against EUR weakness, at least when compared to USD. Then again, if EUR weakens further against the USD, I suppose CAD could also leading to a rise in EUR/CAD.

Am I trying to make sense out of a senseless pair, or just picking a complicated one? Hmmm, now that I look again, it seems that the lows are getting higher in this pair. Thanks again for your valuable and generous time.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 1:37
emad, i mean that yen could rise this week just as it did last week and the week before.

Ashraf
emad_must
gaza, Palestine
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 1:24
hello Mr Ashraf
what u mean with dont forget the yen why u choose this topic?
im sorry becouse my English langauge is bad i just understand 60% from ur article
looool
what we will see in yen next week ? or at last of year
emad_must
gaza, Palestine
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 1:11
Great Mr Ashraf we concerne with ur articles
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 1:08
Rob, thats partly the reason, look at AUDJPY and AUDUSD and simply interpolate gradually emerging yen strength. i warned about this in the middle of last week and the prior week (when i was in Milan) and in both Fridays, the yen ended up being the best performer.

Lower highs in AUDJPY suggests 82 a decent target. Especially if Aussie job figs prove bad later this week.

Chances of a real USD rebound beyond +3% are very hard to see unless we get a stock sell-off of more than 6-7%. latest Fed comments are very USD negative. only falling markets can save the dollar..or disappointing figs from China.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
14 years ago
Nov 11, 2009 0:53
Great article Ashraf. So the recent pullbacks that propped the USD for about a week saw it perform best against the AUD. Do you think this will be the same going forward.

Also, you didn't mention targets for AUD/JPY - do you feel it's best to buy JPY against the 3 you mentioned, or would you say that AUD/JPY may fall hardest because of the high-yielding AUD?

Lastly, do you see the USD recovering whatsoever in the near-term until the end of the year? Would you simply say that it all depends on if we get an equity pullback?

Thanks for your help and time!
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
14 years ago
Nov 10, 2009 22:49
If the market is not paying so much attention on Yen now.........and everyone is waiting on the line to short USD.......why should we to touch it ??? Paying some commission fee to the brokers???

if you are George Soros, maybe you can drive the market a little bit......otherwise......we don't see any reason to touch Yen........short USD should be the best play by the end of this year.......

Yen should have some rally in Fed and March next year.....because many Japanese companies will repatriate their oversea money.....
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