Oil Weakness May Intensify

Hedgie,

You, having gone through my post history (extensively) a few weeks ago, must've found HOW many times I mentioned about the possible scenario of Israel attacking Natanz (Iran's nuclear facility) wrt oil...and how this has kept my stops & sells in place before I go to bed every night.

While yes, the scenario is getting close to reality...in NO WAY has the price been discounted of that scenario. In fact, you can't price that until it happens! To begin, just the 'breaking news' would drive up the price to 100+ within the first few seconds! As as reality sinks in, we're heading to much higher levels.

I know i'll attract criticism again...but bear in mind that one-third of the world's total oil supply passes, directly or indirectly, through the Strait of Hormuz! Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait in case of any 'misadventure'. Who else but the world's largest oil consumers - US & Europe - will be affected. Any reason then why the US has witheld (Israel) from going solo?

Again, it would be a cavalier play for any analyst to predict the oil price should Israel attack Iran. & hey, I haven't even opened the chapter of Syria & Iran getting into the equation...


Asad

Said, im still on vacation and the Turkish Lira is the last thing on my mind. Most of those who bought TKL for its high yield in margin fx ended up losing. i said in margined fx trading.

Ashraf

oil must be delivered could it be norway, saudi, oman, opec countries.
i dont see any fundamental reason to create a glut at persion gulf even iran needs to deliver its tankers and lng

Asad I read an interesting article by Doug Kass, in 2010 he thinks they could be a possibility ( however small) of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear plants. Now I'm sure that factor has already been discounted by oil traders and added into the price, but if that were to really happen, well wouldn't want to be short. Personally from what i'm reading from GS and other brokers I might be looking at getting myself some long dated calls in crude....what's the opinion of others on here?

i;ll have to ask cmc markets how i go about trading these derivitives. through there platform.how would you go about trading iraqi currency? thanks