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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Dec 18, 2009 18:24
Comments: 80
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl

Time for US dollar to regain some composure, especially against the sterling, whose 2010 fortunes for the year appear dismal at best.
 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 14:54
nzvik, i am not a short term trader on margin just a speculator and financial advisor. i buy raw currency on highs and sell on lows and have done very well since. for example I bought dollars at all time low in 2007 and liquidated during crisis for sterling (domestic currency) Day trading is not my game right now but I am studying strategies that may be profitable. When I make calls they are not necessarily short term they could be 6 months or a 2 years as that is my tradable range.

Be sure that when i start trading i will make good money as you can only learn with experience and learning all the time.

My call for gold to collapse is happening now along with support for current stock prices where many were forecasting otherwise.

Having said that we ALL makes mistakes believe me I see it all there time no matter how great and smart you may be. so i am not pretending to be george soros.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 14:44
abz, we need to CLOSE the WEEK FIRMLY above 1120. if we do get weekly close at 1121 it will NOT count.

Ashraf
abz
UK
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 13:16
ashraf,
now that we have broken 1120 on S&P (currently 1123), what is your view on risk from here?
do you see the dow jones reaching 11k in the new year?
regards
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 13:09
okay - but i am quite sure you have been calling for a dollar rally for 5 months or more and I also suspect you do not trade any of your theories you put out - or else you'd be out of pocket on the long dollar trade you have been advocating for 5 months
speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:51
i have not been calling any stock crashes over the last 5 months and have kept saying they would go higher.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:46
Spec - to my memory you have been calling for a dollar rally for the last 5 months and accompanied with a crash in stocks - as you use Elliott wave - and Prechter has been calling for a dollar rally since July 2009 - he was just 5 months too early just like you.
nzvik
New Zealand
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:42
USD rallied after the last NFP on Dec 4 - it is quite simple cause and effect. trying to overcomplicate issues is best left to economists.

just wait till Jan 9 for the next NFP if it is a "major" disappointment - USD will violently move down - the drop of nearly 1000 pips (in EURUSD) will be made up in half the time it has taken to go down. however if jobs start getting added - then USD might rally some more and then settle into a range for sometime - what that level will be I don't know - maybe EUR at 1.35 to 1.38.

just because the move to USD as a safe haven happened in the last equity crash, is no assurance it will happen again. but i am no expert - and if one is sure of a deeper dip next year and operates in a longer time horizon - then trade it.
esoteric economic theories are not tradeable to make money regularly.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:30
HI SPEC
ARE YOU SAYING THAT EURO GOT IN A SHORT SQUEEZE,
Xaron
Munich, Germany
Posts: 528
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:15
Thanks spec, I agree with that. Especially that the markets were too short in the USD. But I see the current levels as good long term opportunities to short the Dollar again as I still think that we won't see any rate hike by the FED in 2010 at all. I just think the FED won't risk a possible double dip recession and wants to be 100% sure that the recession is over. After that I think they will hike quite aggressively.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Dec 23, 2009 12:09
dollar is not entirely rising because of its haven appeal. its because the market was too short and it got to a level where there were HARDLY any more bulls/neutrals to convernt to bears. When this happens it can only go up.

I mentioned we would not get any dip in stocks of more than 5% at Q4. stocks are the way forward in longer term and OUT of BONDS completely. In a rising interest rate cycle you do not want to bet on bonds. Interest rate rises will have some impact on stocks as remember they are competing with each other for return, however as the economy improves i cant see any major dips unless a geopolitical event arises.
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