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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
eh...it is a pain to listen american speak american english, and most of them call that american...OMG, a new language...
Juncker today warned "contagion" ... Belgium Italy may catch the Euro disease.
What chartists can only and only expect is very high volatility ...and that is not seasonal
rather it is problem- oriented responses.
A movement is grappling vs. Merkel ....back to national currencies . NOW. 42000 signed the online plea in just 2 hours after the site was up.
Of course it has no chance but what it does it undermines the idea of a united Europe.
Btw. grand master Greenspan has in 2000 predicted correctly the Euro crisis even before Euro was introduced as currency .
ok ur ema has more touches, maybe more chop..but more accurate measuring it seems
on some fibo measuring from tun...
yes,the tunnel sig there for short, but the 21 has to lose against last 2 hours as filter to confirm short.
sometimes spikes are not caught this way, but either are the whiplash episodes...
on 4 hr. for trend..only watching the candle and the 8sma...but drawing the channels to see if
I can avoid partial of the slow chop 4 will allow...
u can certainly visually backtest this.
putting the 2 together can secure the 'inside' of a move..with sizing if I am going to layer in then will start at 3 lots..and add at next 4 hr close if direction continues...usually however will take 8-12 lots
if the stop tun, level is close enuff for r/r....this allows so much flex in profit by jus closing at sh fibo..
size matters..
sometimes if against trend will 'reverse vegas' and add more longs at lower short levels (common
practice in hedge/fund positioning).
_____
we now have swiss and euro in the tunnel area..
the weekly trend indicator has given south signal....agree? or neutral..
pair trade..
so a possible position wud be sht euro, sh usd/chf with the wkl trend perhaps down
then I wud go 6/8 sh euro/usd...against 4/6 sht usd/chf....if it momentums then drop the neg side..
if it look range, then bank and double back on neg. side..
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planning to close long euro/usd @ 4195 at 4290 asian sunday...
and enter straight or pair....
__________
how abt you...and where did u get the vegas model?
TomB: thanks for returning.
sending email...
posting view next on 1 hr and 4 hr..and small research on diff between em and sm on 1 hr...
shud be confronted...I know u r busy..and I know you, above all, from the ole forum, know how 'whack' we can get from time to time..and I am sure you know who the traders are.
(good call on euro and very good tp.)
Tomas (pirate)
Here is CHART OF 1 MONTH VOLATILITY worth looking at :
NOT TO BE CONFUSED with EURUSD SPot
http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=442
Ashraf
Ashraf