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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
let's not start.... you've proven to me time and time again you're not worth the debate... :)
good luck puzzo!
i do know EW but it's not my cup of tea.... don't really use it as my main tool but something i consider it for longer term charts only...
the improtance of 2800 level as mentioned is not based EW or Fibo... but interestingly coincides with FIBO level... as i've mentioned... monthly close below that level would likely call for 2000 level...
on the flip side... back above 3800 level would mean 4400/4500 level then possibly 5200(which would mean resumption of uptrend)....
..after the fuct
c cool de savoir que tu parles francais !
c clair la BCE fait toujours dans la modestie !
good to know you're also human.... :)
yesterday you mentioned 3330 level.... that would be the max correction b4 down to your 2700 level...
question...
if(and only IF) Euro manages to break above 3330 level... what would that imply and would you be changing your short-medium term strategy?
TIA
ah... vigilante...
The move up from the June low at 1.1875 to the Nov high at 1.4280 could also be an ABC corrective rather than a 5 wave sequence. For this alternate count the wave A is at 1.3333 and the wave B at 1.2587 with the completed wave C at the Nov high. Both waves A and C have 5 waves within to meet the criteria and the wave B was a corrective. The implications are bearish with new lows to follow well below the June low.
With EW I always look for alternate counts which need to be made very clear to avoid getting married to a single bias. Price action will dictate which count to follow in due course which was covered in your analysis by detailing the "longer" term patterns. The value in EWA is creating a map with some what ifs at specific levels and most of all having a pretty good idea of what to expect. Pattern recognision takes the "random" out of trading.
US 10 YEAR YIELDS TOUCH 3.00% for the 1st time since August, nearing the 200-day MA of 3.10% while USD approaches towards its own 200-day MA of 82 from the current 80.40. This especially negative for EURUSD as the spread between German and US 10-year yields (GE minus US) deteriorates to -0.18% after repetitively failing to regain positive territory since June 2009. The yield spread implications for EURUSD are such that $1.30 will likely come under assault before our medium term target of $1.27 emerges. EURO BULLS WILL NEED TO SEE A CLOSE above $1.3260-70 on Friday in order for the downtrend to be challenged into a concrete rebound.
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Ashraf
would face some resistance initially at 3270/80 level.... could see pullback from that level back down to 3110/20 support.... b4 moving higher toward 3380/3400...
En renouvelant jusqu' la fin mars 2011 ses oprations d'octroi de liquidit infinie 1 semaine, 1 mois et 3 mois, la BCE montre qu'elle reste extrmement vigilante sur les consquences pour les banques du stress actuel sur les marchs obligataires. En repoussant ainsi un resserrement de sa politique montaire au T2 2011, elle offre un peu de rpit au systme bancaire europen.
Jean-Claude Trichet a rappel avec volontarisme que le programme d'achat d'obligations se poursuivait, la BCE tant consciente du stress actuel
Sans donner d'indications sur le volume achet cette semaine - qui sera publi comme d'habitude mardi prochain, Jean-Claude Trichet a dit que le programme tait actif et qu'il le resterait tant que les marchs connaitront de trop fortes distorsions . Cela pourrait permettre la dtente trs rcente des spreads des pays priphriques de se poursuivre trs court terme.
Enfin, Jean-Claude Trichet a dfendu l'engagement des autorits europennes face cette crise
En rappelant que la zone euro dans son ensemble tait bien plus solide budgtairement que les Etats-Unis et le Japon, en montrant que les surprises sur la conjoncture taient positives depuis plusieurs trimestres et en s'engageant sur la volont des gouvernements dfendre la stabilit de la zone, Trichet s'est pos en grand dfenseur de l'Union Montaire et Economique.
Au-del de ce message rassurant, les marchs vont dsormais se focaliser sur les conclusions du Conseil Europen des 16 et 17 dcembre prochain
La crise actuelle ne trouvera sa solution que par la mise en place d'outils de cohsion politique et conomique crdibles et prennes (que nous prsentons dans notre tude Perspectives pour le risque souverain en 2011 du 29 novembre). Les chefs d'Etat ont prvu de rendre des premires propositions sur le mcanisme qui prolongera ou remplacera le FESF lors du Conseil de dcembre. Si un consensus peinait merger, les marchs pourraient ragir de nouveau ngativement. La BCE a donc appel de ses v ux une relle ambition de la part des chefs d'Etats.
From our friends from EXANE