EUR

I am shorting EUR here at $1.2867 all the way up to $1.2900 if it gets there. If $1.29 breaks, I will close.

Hi,

Ashraf has been on the mark for almost all the time.
this last month being the only exception i remember

he is quite current to the actual price movements - meaning if a trend changes, it does not take him long to adjust - unlike pseudo economists like myself who would consider the big macros and not listen to the price moves

also, he is in THE leagues - he is connected, so he knows what Duetche bank is doing or advising to clients versus Citi versus HSBC etc ets. This is key to being ahead of the curve

and on top he is good with his economics background - sovereign issues, reserves etc

so, i do not know why he has missed a call on this one (or maybe he is right and the Euro will go down again - time will tell)


i would like to understand what it would take him to say that the trend for the Dollar has reversed
would the eurodollar breaching 200 day MA (around 1.38) be good enough?


I have lived few years in US and also in Europe.
I can see that the openess of US towards globalism has and is still destroying its economy via China and India etc.
Look at the 100 year charts of Dow. the 1982 -2000 (and before that the sixties) is exceptional returns triggered by cheap money fed into the US system and the long bonds going down in yield over decades. Especially the experience of Greenspan from 2002 to 2006 clearly shows that the FED is trying to avoid long recessions by keep rates low. As soon as you increase rates, (within next 1-2 years) the economy tanks. What r the FEDs going to do? Keep rates low for another 5 years? Maybe. But the fact is the FEDs cannot raise rates becuase the economy will tank. Yes, the US economy is going at 3+%. But maybe 2% of this is the fiscal stimulus that is going to expire. The US economy is so stimulated with monetary stimulus as it can possibly be - you r forcing people to keep borrowing on and on and on while real incomes are not rising and then all the loses are taken over by the government. There is a fundamental problem in the US economy that needs to be addressed.

There r 2 options - more fiscal stimulus and hope that at some point when stimulus X ends, the economy is able to grow on its own. This is doubtful due to permanent loss of jobs due to globalisation. the other option is for slow devaluation of the Dollar by buying long AND short term bonds by the FED and Obama and he multinationals "double" US exports in next five years.

@Coach, @Ashraf, @Forum:

You are all right, of course. I have always assumed responsibility for my own trades. How can it be otherwise? But trends, and more importantly trend changes are easy to spot...in hindsight. And when the fundamentals don't really appear to have changed....well, one can be caught off-guard. That's where money-management and all those other good things come into importance...to limit your risk and losses.

Clearly market sentiment changed regarding the USD, what with a series of bad US data, plus Europe at least appearing to get to grips with sovereign debt.

It is clear as crystal (now) that the EUR/USD market changed around 7th June. Kudos to those who either anticipated this, or spotted it early. Not that many, if postings here are anything to go by.


Well, looking forward, I see that an FXstreet analyst is saying that if the weekly close is above 1.28, then another round of short-covering may take place. I guess then that 1.30 would be relatively easily achievable.