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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
just wait...EURUSD will not rise above 3290
4 hr close under 1.3204 needed mho for southbound...
otherwise still long from 3143..
The latter is to be avoided. CDS will be triggered in either case. Orderly default might possibly not swap over to Portugal Spain. No guarantee, though.
The document asserts that Greece will officially be declared in default by all the ratings agencies after the close of business on Friday march 23rd . At the weekend all Greek bank accounts will be frozen, with emergency measures detailed to prevent the flight of capital. Included in the paperwork is a list of very limited exceptions to the no withdrawals order. All major banks are instructed not to deal with euro exchange as of open of business in Greece on Monday 26th march. All Greek markets will close for one day at least.
How Greece Could Take Down Wall Street
by Ellen Brown
In an article titled Still No End to Too Big to Fail, William Greider wrote in The Nation on February 15th:
Financial market cynics have assumed all along that Dodd-Frank did not end "too big to fail" but instead created a charmed circle of protected banks labeled "systemically important" that will not be allowed to fail, no matter how badly they behave.
That may be, but there is one bit of bad behavior that Uncle Sam himself does not have the funds to underwrite: the $32 trillion market in credit default swaps (CDS). Thirty-two trillion dollars is more than twice the U.S. GDP and more than twice the national debt.
CDS are a form of derivative taken out by investors as insurance against default. According to the Comptroller of the Currency, nearly 95% of the banking industrys total exposure to derivatives contracts is held by the nations five largest banks: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs. The CDS market is unregulated, and there is no requirement that the insurer actually have the funds to pay up. CDS are more like bets, and a massive loss at the casino could bring the house down.
It could, at least, unless the casino is rigged. Whether a credit event is a default triggering a payout is determined by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), and it seems that the ISDA is owned by the worlds largest banks and hedge funds. That means the house determines whether the house has to pay.
The Houses of Morgan, Goldman and the other Big Five are justifiably worried right now, because an event of default declared on European sovereign debt could jeopardize their $32 trillion derivatives scheme. According to Rudy Avizius in an article on The Market Oracle (UK) on February 15th, that explains what happened at MF Global, and why the 50% Greek bond write-down was not declared an event of default.
If you paid only 50% of your mortgage every month, these same banks would quickly declare you in default. But the rules are quite different when the banks are the insurers underwriting the deal.
Strauss-Kahn turned himself in for questioning at 8:55 a.m. local time, a spokeswoman for the Lille prosecution said, declining to be named according to office policy. He faces possible charges of aiding in procuring prostitutes and benefiting from embezzlement, she said.
merkel: Non je ne regrette rien! Aujourdhui, a commence avec toi!
Je t'aime
DSK : moi non plus