EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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AUDYEN 7711 presently headed 7680
Somebody else is using Rita Laskers robot) Yep, it's quite helpful while autotrading. But anyway you have to use your own head. If you combine your head and the robot potencial - you get amazing result. Worth using it, for sure.
It seems like the bearish correction is becoming more complicated and while 91.66-85 caps this should still allow a retest at 90.20 and then the 89.30 target from where I anticipate a stronger recovery.
If the 88.97 low breaks then look for losses to extend to the 88.13-21 lows and I think then I may get a bit more bearish...
The 91.47 high remained intact and price spent the whole day declining. It looks as if it has done enough to suggest the decline was corrective. To confirm this a move above the 90.58-67 area must be seen. Once this is confirmed it should make its way higher back to 90.90 and probably the 91.16-29 area. Take care here as this has potential to cause a reversal back into the range. Only above extends gains above 91.47 but not above 91.81.
Only directly below 90.32 would extend losses to 90.19 but then a pullback higher. However, once the correction is complete then the next leg should be lower and would then target the 89.30 target.
Thats what Nomura, the big Japanese investment bank, is telling clients. They recommend a 1-year 88/98 double-no-touch to take advantage of the lack of movement in this pair, based upon the idea that Japan.US interest rate differentials are unlikely to change very much over the next year. Hard to argue with the logic.
USD/JPY trades now at 90.60.
Agreed from an economist viewpoint it is preferrable.
Nobel-Prize Winner Mundell Signals Yuan Move Will Erode Economic Stability
Robert Mundell, the Nobel Prize- winning economist, signaled that Chinas pledge to return to a more flexible exchange-rate policy may erode stability in the global and Chinese economies.
Keeping the yuan pegged to the dollar has been a great source of stability for China and the world, the Columbia University professor told reporters in Hong Kong today. While U.S. President Barack Obama welcomed the move, he is not an economist, Mundell said.
Mundell, credited as the intellectual father of the euro, has previously called for the European currency to be fixed against the dollar, saying exchange-rate swings were a cause of the global financial crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-21/nobel-prize-winner-mundell-signals-yuan-shift-may-erode-economic-stability.html
Assuming China is both serious and quick to act in its stated CNY revaluation, then the news is a likely game changer for markets, certainly in the near term, because it is a genuine boost for risk appetite that has been sorely lacking from markets for the past months and provides a critical counterweight to the unending news of stagnation or sovereign default worries from most of the developed world.
If in fact China takes concrete steps to revalue the Yuan, the move is viewed as positive for risk assets.
The key points:
Anyone who earns more in Yuan than they pay out will benefit. Thus those importing to China get a boost, those manufacturing in China and exporting most of that production (rather than selling it in China) will see their costs rising and be hurt.
The rest of the worlds goods become more competitive vs. those of China, increasing export revenues worldwide.
WINNERS:
Those selling to China, most major multinationals and especially the big commodity exporters, will earn more, as will those already established in Chinas retail sector, like major multinational automakers (VW, BMW) and fast food chains (YUM).
Chinese firms that import most of their inputs (airlines, manufacturers) AND sell mostly to the domestic market will benefit to the extent that savings are greater than loss in revenue from exports. Examples include Chinese airlines and those primarily selling imported goods and services to China (aerospace, computers, consulting, specialty heavy equipment, etc).
Chinese Retail Sector: The move is likely to accelerate foreign investment in Chinas retail sector as CNY earnings now become more attractive
Because China is a major buyer of commodities, commodities and commodity-based currencies are have also been immediate beneficiaries of the move, particularly the AUD, NZD, and CAD.
LOSERS
Those dependent on Chinese products will suffer, but China makes few goods that cant be gotten elsewhere. Major importers from China like Walmart should suffer, as will Chinese exporters, which will need to focus more on the domestic market.
The move also potentially diffuses a destructive potential trade war between China and the US, which has been openly losing patience with Chinas currency policy, which the US and others asserted gave China an unfair export advantage. The issue was due to be raised at this coming weekends G20 meeting but is now likely to be pushed off as nations give China more time to activate its new policy.
Again, the key to whether these become longer term trends will depend on the degree and speed of the revaluation. While that is a subject of intense debate, we suspect the Chinese will take a gradual approach to revaluation, and will not hesitate to slow or halt the process of global growth should falter or reverse.
What is your view ?