Forum - GBP (Topic)

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

13 years ago

Apr 5, 2011 0:38

Don't know if you were around in the last recession 89 to 94. I remember driving down to Sussex from Oxford in about mid recession 93. Every other house in suburbia towns like Horsham had a for sale board up. No exageration. When I came down to Cornwall in 95 everything was for sale and I mean everything. You could buy a 30 room hotel with seaside position in Newquay (no longer trading) for 90K. Nat West had special units to phase repossesed properties slowly back onto the market so as not to further undermine prices. I bought a 30 acre farm park with 7 old world cottages and 12 riverside cabins for 240K. It had a thriving self catering holiday letting biz needing a little renovation and marketing.

My point is that anyone thinking that things are getting bad now have not lived through the last 3 recessions. Banks and mortgage lenders may well have long memories even though they are a bunch of cretins nowadays :-)

DaveO

UK

Posted Anonymously

13 years ago

Apr 5, 2011 0:20

Gunjack, I believe there is quite a high rate of arrears but the banks have been stretching the exercising of forebearance and even encouraging their customer to revert to interest only product in order to delay a foreclosure and potential write down. As you know (London aside) house prices have been creeping down again most recent months with the occasional one month blip in the #'s. It does not therefore surprise me to hear they are tightening lending criteria again. The outlook for house prices in general for the next year or two is pretty dismal I think. London is rather exceptional with a lot of foreign money coming into the london market during the last coupla years. Greeks, Italians et al.

If I were a mortgage lender I would be worrying about negative equity property values once our austerity measures really start to bite. Remembering back to pre free-for-all subprime mortgage products the interest only mortgage always had stricter lending criteria and 75% LTV would be very typical. Prime products were mainly capital and interest repayment. You could try Northern Rock lol.

I am very out of touch having sold up property except my main residence back in 2002. I thought there was a bubble then :-)

Gunjack

London, UK

Posts: 1184

13 years ago

Apr 4, 2011 22:10

@DaveO or any other UK based traders/specs whats your take on UK housing market? Lloyds/Halifax have changed the LTV requirement on interest only mortgages from 85 to 75%...not exactly a vote of confidence by our largest lending institution

subway90

Posts: 1078

13 years ago

Mar 31, 2011 9:41

GBP's main resistance formed at 6250/70 level... only clear break and close above 6270 level could see move higher toward 6480/6500 resistance...

good to short around 6250/70 for 5700 level in coming weeks.....

gl/gt

lucky

ibadan, Nigeria

Posts: 377

13 years ago

Mar 28, 2011 21:01

i believe there is big trap these week but i dont know when it will be but i am certain b4 npf outcome

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

13 years ago

Mar 28, 2011 19:59

465 pips lower on mine, Mkt been lagging my comments exactly re UK position, i.e difficulty of rate increase and heading for negative growth.

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Mar 28, 2011 19:20

500 pips in 5 days is quite a move for GBPUSD. Why would a currency fall so much despite having at least 50-bps of rate hikes priced in? The UK Budget was deemed mostly neutral and borrowing requirements were in line w/ PM Camerons initial plans. But the problem lies with the growth outlook, which was tacitly revised down by the latest Bank of England minutes. And although the BoE raised its CPI forecast to as high 5%, markets remain unconvinced with the BoEs ability to raise rates without disrupting an economy thats teetering on the edge of double-dip recession. The Office for Budget Responsibility lowered its 2011 GDP forecast to 1.7% from the previous 2.1%. Tomorrows final release of UK Q4 GDP seen at -0.6% from -0.5%. GBPUSD trendline support remains none other than the 11-month support at 1.5850. With EUR pressured by ESM uncertainty and Portugals borrowing needs, EURGBP may see its gains capped at 0.8830s.

Ashraf

Nor

Lemberg, Canada

Posts: 249

13 years ago

Mar 25, 2011 3:50

or short it @1.6150 Letisha

Letisha

St. Catherine, Jamaica

Posts: 156

13 years ago

Mar 25, 2011 1:50

Bullish Divergence on H4...does this mean that sellers have begun to lose steam....Look for strong reversal 6100-6060 level b4 any decisions to go Long!!!

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

13 years ago

Mar 23, 2011 10:48

Bank of England minutes of March meeting continued to show the same 6-3 vote on interest rates, with Sentence, Dale and Weale asking for rate hike at +50 bps, +25bps and +25 bps respectively. Sterling is on the backfoot after disappointing the hawks that there was not a fourth hawkish dissent. The cenbank raised its inflation forecast to as high as 5%. Chancellor Osborne will announce the UK Budget for Growth today focusing on tax breaks on corporations and fuel duty as well as a plan for first time home buyers.

Sterling on the backfoot, falling to $1.6280s while EURGBP bounced off the 0.8650s trendline support (Feb 18) now eyeing a possible breakout of 0.87 for 0.8730. EURO TRADERS await the vote from Portugal's Congress on austerity due at about 17:00 GMT (12:00 ET).

Discussions to start at 15:00 GMT. In the event that austerity is rejected, PM Socrates could end up without govt, which raises the possibility for Portugal to ask for a bailout at tomorrows EU summit. EURUSD has shied away from the $1.4280 trendline resistance and is not expected to break out of it. USDJPY remains stuck at 81.

Ashraf