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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 19:13
Thx Juno1 hope your short is ok. reckon if we get below 100.30 then shorts are well in
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 18:58
Cat - Check out the Brent WTIC spread hitting 18 this morning. it tightened by about 40 pips today. reckon more on its way
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 18:47
While OPEC defunct the percentage of Russia as supplier of ( however poor quality Urals crude) crude goes up. I think that Europe is eager to get out of death knell contracts with Russia, at first out of the grip of Gazprom, which demands rooftop prices ( 3 times higher then henry hub per BTU) . Now Poland develops shale gas and is assumed to hold huge reserves.
Despite higher cost of extrapolation and extraction ( fracking) its still half the price of Gazprom. I think we will pretty soon see a sharp drop in brent because Russia will try to bring crude down to support Gazprom. The ratio of crude to nat gas in terms of BTU will be constant,
and as nat gas is pegged to oil, they must bring crude down to torpedoe Poland's plans by selling nat gas much cheaper for a while until Poland's project funding is emptied.
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:15
Well done Gunjack.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:06
And we print 101.595 as soon as 101.25 gives way....black magick!!!!
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 17:02
Thank's for that Gunjack. I am of the view that if 104.6 holds then i am bearish down to 90.00.
As you say if Libyan crises is resolved soon then that could be the catalyst for a down move seeing as opec held off from raising production.
Good luck
Juno1
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 16:47
@Juno1 - I see 101.20-30 region as some resis, but above that and we could head to the 101.60-70s v quickly...good luck with your short. Me personally I have a 100 strike put in CL in place as the macro news is still shi**y and doesnt warrant such high price. Plus once Gaddafi is taken out and that will happen soonish we will see a huge risk premium taken out of the mkt as Libyan crude starts pumping again
juno1
UK
Posts: 52
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 15:59
Gunjack, where do you see oil heading?
Just taken a short with a stop at 102 .7. Looks as though opec is stalemate on raising production for time being.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 8, 2011 12:37
Guessing no one uses mkt profile on here then?
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Jun 7, 2011 20:24
Question for the tech analysis crew on here...VPOC, IB High/low...how do you trade around those. Any mkt profile followers on here?
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