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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:
Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
the raw datas on infrastructure has pushed the MCA on the rise.
put the charger on the floor.
I've been having a target for SPX of 1320 for nearly a year now. Reason for this target is this is the key break-down level before the huge down move to 666 following the outbreak of the financial crisis in autumn 2008. And my observation is SPX usually comes back to test break-downs and break-outs, i.e. comes back to visit the scene of the crime.
Last week (before Fri) I thought it coul be reached by Thursday/Feb 3, as my cycle research is indicating Feb 3 could be a turn date (change of trend). But when the market sold-off after Egypt news, I thought SPX will not actually reach 1320 but will instead try to recover to 1290 where the downside would resume. This is why I shorted yesterday at 1287 ES with a tight stop. Obviously this pos was stopped out and for a reason - ES broke out to new highs.
Now I see that SPX will probably test 1320 at the end of the day. And this is why I am starting to build short pos in ES just below this key level.
Besides the sentiment picture around US stock indices is very bearish (for price that is) and I am a sentiment trader. So this adds to the 1320 scenario.
Hope this explanation helps.
GL.