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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 22:08
In reply to Qingyu's post
yields will go up so short bonds , that is going to come soon.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 22:00
In reply to cat0nip's post
10y yield raise in this month with usdx, 1.95 atm.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 21:18
Hum I think the rotation is already going on. Because of bond buying by CBs everywhere, you just don't see it
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 21:03
depends on how one defines crash or distinguishes crash from correction. That is, the market model. I think rather the rotation from bonds , as many expect a bubble about to pop in bonds, will continue, so only small correction. But anyway I am planning a short with a bunch of CFDs next week, and a much slower rise to maybe 1680 to 1690 than we have seen up to now. That could be the short trigger.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 20:30
1390 that is almost crash close was 1666 , -17% that's a lot of
money to make with a 400:1 leverage, no i don't buy that
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 19:25
agree on gap up but next week expect pullback begins that could lead to 1580 in S&P
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 18:44
In the book Why stock markets crash the author proves with extreme
simplicity that stock markets only function with "noise traders"
that is traders who gather information from ..you guess it- chart astrology. While the profs have all the information and act accordingly all they have to do is to confirm noise traders their analysis is correct to eventually get the price they need for profit. So its not a proverbial rumor it is plain and simple maths.To built their traps profs disguise as speculators at the futures markets , generate gaps , and let the herd follow , at little extra cost, but mostly with extra profit.
If the market has only informed traders - such as insiders - no one would buy an overpriced asset and no one would sell an underpriced asset. So it needs a herd of chartastrologers to provide the liquidity that the handful of informed traders scoop up. And there is no way out of that.
This does not hold in forex markets as even the bigger players are dwarfed by the biggest, the central banks.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 13:21
xi is copycat "american dream", and promise wages doubled in 2020, but food cpi keep 4-5% rise in china. i really doubt, cpi or wage, which gonna doubled first.
Qingyu
manchester, UK
Posts: 1763
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 13:15
In reply to cat0nip's post
i read that, but thought that is not the key. it takes time to make jap back on track. debts&workers, that's not the point. energy? uncle sam promise sell cheap gas to jap, new gas turbine plant cheap and easy to build for GE/RR.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
May 19, 2013 12:42
In reply to Qingyu's post
In this regard Mauldin had an excellent analysis recently about Japan and China, and how China might suffer big from Abenomics IF
it works.