Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:
USD
Discuss USD
PBOC. Both can end up in big surprises. USA is not center of the world anymore and Eurozone is as far away from that location as can be. And PBOC officials are carefully selected communist party functionaries who are such stupid that it appears they are ultimately clever.
Did nayone notice gold took a dive exactly at the end of Bernanke before CPI?
Take care folks.
Anyway.. no reason to be spreading the guilt or being offensive. I recommend you review YOUR mistakes... Ashraf is not going to trade FOR YOU. You must put an effort yourself.
You are showing yourself to be the "most stupid person". Markets never move in a straight line. Suggest you buy a few very basic books on trading and do some study yourself.
(from most top to bottom: most helpful scenarios for QE2)
Core CPI: DOWN / Non-Core CPI: DOWN
Core CPI: DOWN / Non-Core CPI: FLAT
Core CPI: FLAT / Non-Core CPI: FLAT
Core CPI: DOWN* / Non-Core CPI: UP*
Core CPI: UP / Non-Core CPI: UP
The most interesting of these would be (and in my opinion the most likely) the fourth case. Due to the increase in food and energy. Its interesting because pitching that you want to create inflation when people are already starting to feel the pinch might not be politically correct and could postpone or reduce the QE2 effort.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/
THE OTHER IMPORTANT EVENT TODAY aside from the Bernanke speech, which will come out 15 minutes before the US retail sales & CPI reports, the US Treasury may publish its SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE, possibly labelling China as a currency manipulator. The reports official release dates are April 15 and October 15, but it is almost always delayed by 1-2 months.
The Treasury has been pressured and criticised by US Congress for never naming China as a currency manipulator. In the UNLIKELY event that it does, this would effectively declare a currency war on China.
RUMOURS OF A DEAL involving the US delaying the report or not naming China as manipulator IN EXCHANGE for China either revaluing the yuan or allowing it to appreciate faster. As part of any deal, China will need the Fed to issue LESS QE (purchase less treasuries) in order to alleviate the downward spiral of the USD.
Anticipation ahead of this report is a strong reason why we saw consolidation in Thursday FX markets involving USD bounce and yen declines.
Ashraf
today cnyusd slip 618 points to 6.6512, so this is what pboc going to do, yield before qe.
also, soros said china should appreciate 10% per year.
honestly, they can not do any better. and i think us may happy with that.