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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 30, 2010 17:14
Comments: 41
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Signals from Commodities & LIBOR

Yield differentials, LIBOR developments and the failure in the CRB and Crude Oil continue to boost USD
 
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FXT
london, UK
Posts: 13
15 years ago
May 3, 2010 17:54
Hi Ashraf and others

Copper is taking a hit for the past few days, any views?

Gold continues to rise, can copper play catch up?

Any thoughts Ashraf?


Thanks
kukqebtugy
kukqebtugy, Somalia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 20, 2010 20:35
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 4, 2010 1:11
Ginger, yes those are valid points. BDI falling despite rallying commodities. Note the Index topped out in May 2008, 3 months before the crash in oil prices. This could be due to soaring commodity prices slowing down shipments. Also the index is highly inelastic.

Ashraf
Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 3, 2010 9:42
I'm trying to understand for myslef why BDI should fall from mid-March to now given economic activity is reported to be increasing around the world. The Baltic Dry Index indicates the real demand and supply for dry bulk cargo space - only those who have cargo to ship will buy space and anyone with the available space would supply it (because it's very costly to keep an idle ship) - hence it's not subject to speculation. Given this, what we have currently with the rise in commodity prices is pure speculation. In fact if we take the BDI at face value given the fall since mid March of some 20% commodity prices should be falling not rising as economic activity seems to have stalled again. There is a lot of news out of China about growth but chances are the numbers have been fabricated as is the norm there. Certainly Jim Chanos thinks China's a big bubble - some 60% of the economy is construction of high rise buildings which are non-productive.
At some point (may be 2/3 months max if not much sooner) economic reality will mean base metals such as copper will correct and trade much lower in line with true economic fundamentals.
Hence shorting base metals, especially copper in May/June may reap good returns.
...just my views - interested to hear what Ashraf and others on here think.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Apr 3, 2010 9:16
ashraf

did this dead crosss can it be a hook on macd?
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 17:48
Agree on BDI. Has anyone access to most recent BDTI Baltic dirty tanker ( i.e. crude oil) index?
Imo industry metals copper lead nickel do not reflect supply demand - supply inclusive of LME & Shanghai stocks outstrips demand. Not sure about crude but imo commodities are USD inflation hedges. This could change if FED tightens discount by more than a quarter.
Ginger
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 17:11
Ashraf

I'm interested in your views of the Baltic Dry Index as a leading economic indicator for the stock market. May be you could be kind enough to open up a new discussion based on this subject. What is perplexing to me is that the BDI has been falling steadily from 15th March, yet the stock market has continued to soar. From 15th Jan to 12th Feb the BDI went from 3299 to 2571 i.e. a fall of some 28%. This corresponded with a sell off in equities of around 9%. Currently the BDI stands at 2991 and is down 20% since 15th March. This seems to me to be a good leading indicator for an imminent fall in commodity prices as well as stock markets. I'd say another 2/3 weeks of modest gains for the stock market or sideways moves before a sell-off, a head and shoulders formation following a rebound followed by a large sell off in the summer. In the mean time the $ will strength all through this year.

On commodities I believe copper is the most overextended and should retrace significantly in the summer.

Thanks
Ginger
Taha Khaled
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 4
15 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 1:19
Hi Ashraf ,
what is your forecasting for Euro/ CHF ? .
PS . you are a good football player.
good night
taha
Marginnayan
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 31, 2010 11:00
Very goood analysis on USD.

Ashraf Laidi, Thanks.

Marginnayan
Dodger
London, UK
Posts: 139
15 years ago
Mar 31, 2010 10:44
Apart from it being the time Bloomberg tv kicks into its US coverage I know there is always a flood of liquidity comes into the FX market at 5.00 am new york time,its too early for markets and I don"t know exactly where it comes from,opening of US futures books???Does Ashraf or anyone know exactly???Thats at 10.00 london time.
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