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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 4, 2010 17:30
Comments: 22
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1999 & 2010 Similarities in USD, Euro

The dollar index is set to start its longest MONTHLY winning streak since Jan-June 1999, a year when the USD bullishness and euro gloom was at its maximum
 
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Stationdealer
London, UK
Posts: 715
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 18:11
@Ashraf Why and how would china burst may effect euro if any currency wouldn't that have more effect currencies like CAD AUD NZD & YEN. Commodities yes definitely.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 17:45
Dahab, some experts such as Jin Chanos and Faber are claling for a burst of the chinese "bubble" to occur within 8-10 months, Naturally, if a sharp decline in Chinese demand and growth were to happen, then that could be the next source of damage for EUR and commodities.

Ashraf
DAHAB
United Arab Emirates
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 17:19
hi ashraf, will china facter will effect for euro(experts quotting china will face big crisis soon).
graszoden
Netherlands
Posts: 2
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 16:33
thank you!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 16:10
James,

i explained many times on the INT that gold rally is safehaven play resulting from the damage in sovereign paper. It is peculiar how gold sustained its gains despite selloff in silver, copper and oil

Mike, if your EURGBP fcst materializes, then i see that as more a result of EUR collapse (Ezone unity etcc) rather than any boost to GBP fundamentals. But yes, EURGBP has broken below a that key 100week MA

grasz, i remain cautious with gold especially as it hits new highs in YEn terms.


Ashraf
graszoden
Netherlands
Posts: 2
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 15:54
Do you see gold in a downtrend now?
Mike-Ellis
United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 15:25
Yes, 74 right shoulder, 89/90 neckline. Not unexpectedly, the EU/$ shows the converse, namely an even more vividly defined broad 7-year upright Head and Shoulders with a relatively closer neckline at 1.265. It gives every impression that the early millenia honeymoon of the Euro is over, the full head peak height projecting down to a target of 0.885. EU/BP meantime also giving big picture signs of a major top out and risk back to 0.725 (maybe that predicts a solid win for the Conservatives on Thursday?).

Regards Mike
James
Australia
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 11:17
Hi Ashraf, If USD is raising, whats causing this bull trend in gold? I thought from BDI, gold and other commodity will fall??
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 10:23
Hi Mike, good to hear from you. Those 2 factors would be the major reasons why a such a USD rally would happen (in your scenario). Another one, could be Fed hikes in Q3. So the right shoulder would be 74 and neckline at 90?

Justin, yes, we may very well see 1.27 as early as as June if this continues to fall the way it is. Still see it in Oct.

Saka, you cannot simplify these dynamics by saying oil and USD are always leading indicaors. Not all the time. Stay away from making all ecnompassing remarks and spend more time in learning which asset acquires its role of leading market turns. 2005 also has lots of similariries with 2010 as i spoke about ibn my Cantos Video last week.

Ashraf
Saka
China
Posts: 29
14 years ago
May 5, 2010 3:16
Hi, ashraf

I just have finished reading chapter 3 of your book which describes the period between 1999 to 2001 at which time US dollar was bullish. It coincides that dollar is in the same track now. But I find that there is an important support line formed from subprime crisis and later. Will the EU be supported at this level before cracking down? From your fundermental anaysis, I really trust this is a strong dollar bullish trend. http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=469431&d=1273025170

Meanwhile, after reading chapter 1 and 2 of your book, I still don't know exactly how to use gold and oil to analyse the direction of certain pairs. If I find gold versus two currecies to find which one is more stronger, the pairs of these two is going to certain place where a bullish or bearish trend was formed. This is a hinder sight.

And the oil. If I am not wrong, oil vs dollar can be a leading indicator of financial martet, after it overcomes some important sup/res level, we can anticipate currency market would follow its direction.

Hope you can give me some tips. Thanks you! ^_^
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