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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 5, 2011 19:25
Comments: 27
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Euro: New Year, New Challenges

Euro enters its 12 year and adds a 17th member but the challenges keep on coming. While parity in EURUSD is not viable, no real recovery is due any time soon.
 
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2011 21:28
I agree its just talk and it has taken all this time since inception for euroland to realise their folly for common currency. How dumb can you get ?!
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2011 20:52
Raising interest rate cannot work because the weaker economies need low rates. The eur would possibly strengthen that would indeed quell imported inflation but also reduces the probability for PIGS economies to recover under austerity. I think it is just talk.
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2011 20:44
Ashraf,Forum,

How serious should we take Mr Trichet in reference to the possibility of raising interest rates should inflation get out of hand? Do you believe it's really possible considering the state of the peripheral countries at the moment? Could I ask when you think we could see a rate hike?

thank you,
Trader
Canada
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 13, 2011 18:14
The Eur/USD seems mixed and I see it vulnerable to unnessesary risks of EU restructuring etc....

On the other hand, the Russian economy is set to see massive growth and modernization through LED lighting, and modern infastructure,etc,,,,. With the exchange rate now rebounding to the downside rapidly, it is inevatible that this exchange rate could see levels below 20.000 in the long run. The Ruble is paying fair interest and will remain to do so. USD/TRY, USD/CNY, USD/PLN all good short opportunities for the long run. USD/RUB weekly chart one of my favourites. USD/HKD can be used as a hedge position by going long.

Whats your opinion on this ashraf? and the ever so deteriorating exchange rates of the GPD against other emerging economies?
macrosam
, United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 10, 2011 0:08
Also, if the CCY basis continues to linger where it is (though it has recently rallied), Euro institutions may come to USD markets for funding and then swap them back into EUR for domestic use, i.e. arbitrage. We've seen this already during the first week in January
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Jan 10, 2011 0:04
Fundamentally I see the following a reasons why I would expect a Euro rally:

- tight fiscal policy, which results in less Euros being spent into the economies, promoting deflationary domestic conditions.

- Fed USD swap lines buy institutions time to borrow USD to cover USD losses at an inexpensive cost rather than having to sell EUR to obtain USD

- higher price of crude makes USD more obtainable by non-US sectors (can obtain USD from oil exporters rather than having to obtain them via trade with the US)

The reasons why I would expect a Euro decline:

- political uncertainty

- Dollar losses don't recover

I suspect the reasons for decline will continue to be kicked down the road although I'm not certain what the time frame is for some nations that seem to be overlooked like Belgium. Any Euro member withdrawal would reduce the operational demand base for the currency.
euxenio
barcelona, Spain
Posts: 3
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2011 17:22
Muchas gracias Ashraf por tu brillante analisis; a ver si vuelves a Barcelona. Felicidades.
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
14 years ago
Jan 9, 2011 6:48
Hi Ashraf,

Firstly, great article and thank you!

Do you think with the NFP not exactly blow out numbers means this only slightly delays this?

Also, it seems odd though that eurozone debt crisis seems downplayed in the media (bloomberg, cnbc). I am guessing they will step in when EURUSD is closer to 1.22 :-)
adamcpf
Lisbon, Qatar
Posts: 58
14 years ago
Jan 8, 2011 11:45
Great article Ashraf,

Thank you,

Adam
heresh
duhok, Iraq
Posts: 5
14 years ago
Jan 6, 2011 18:14