Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf,
I don't expect USD will decline so aggressively like early by this year......but it will go down very smoothly........if FED doesn't do anything about USD before next summer.......I think it is possible USD will collapse in next Autumn..........because all the major central banks will tight monetary policy before FED.........

FED extend time to QE, because they want to keep low interest rate and money supply into next year........but some of the central banks have already start tightening now.....they will rise interest rate before FED.......

Shangahi index goes down, because China want to tight now....they just need to make call to the banks, tell them don't lend out any money to anyone..............I think it is very good for China economy in long term..........Fed can't do that, because they have elections......Obama want to be elected again.......they will not stop printing money..........

Obama said that world economy need to re-balance in G20......in other words, he said that I want to debase USD and boost export......I think he will success to debase USD, but not boost export......20 years ago USD/YEN was 400......now it is 90........Japanese still can sell their products to USA......boosting export is not equal to debase currencies.......never works........

Abood26,
if you want to trade on Yen....check this.....this bank are very good on Yen trade......
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/FX_-_Majors.htm

Hello Qin
I have buy Eur/Yen on 134.88 and on 133.57
what is ur advice pls.
thanks

qin this is where you are completely wrong. we have currently a USD carry trade which means dollars are borrowed and risky trades including equities and higher yielders instigated. if risk starts to become less desirable the dollar will need to be repurchased and risky stuff unwinds. secondly, the market is short of dollars against many currencies and I think we are oversold dollar against euro for example and this could result in a sharp reversal in short positions that would benefit dollar.

Ashraf,
Risk aversion won't give USD so much power rally. Back to last year, we had shortage on USD and shorting positions on USD had been adding for more then 2 or 3 years before crisis......the crisis forced all the traders to liquidate all their positions, so USD had a huge rally as we all know.......

But now, we don't have shortage on USD, because FED has been printing so much money and central banks have had some swap currencies pogroms.....On my view, USD is still at oversupply position......so even risk aversion happens in stock market, it will be limited for USD rally.......

About EURO, the European companies have been investing in oversea, particular in emerging countries more then 2 or 3 times amount of money, if you compare to American companies over the last 2 or 3 years........so American companies have less power to influence to the FX market when they want to repatriate their assets back into USD......but European companies and Japanese companies have more power about it now........by the end of year, both European companies and American companies will do the repatriation at the same time, you will see Euro will rise more then USD.........