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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 11:05
Hey, FX
I didn't see you online recently, how was your trip?
By the way, I don't think that Norges Bank will raise interest rate in DEC.....but next year..........if they do in DEC, that will be my biggest Christmas present!!! haha.....
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 22, 2009 10:59
I was right to add more short on USD/NOK yesterday. I thought the pare will stay flat into next week, but it pays me very good return now.
About the today's housing report, I think it will be positive news for the market.....Let see......

I am considering add more short on the pare if it pull back this week again....
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Sep 21, 2009 14:50
I just added more short positions on USD/NOK......

About EUR/USD:
I think if the market continue its profits taking action, EUR/USD will pull back to 1.450, if the hedge fund want to use this wave to trigger some long positions' stop loss, they will short the pare when it close to 1.450 in order to break the level and trigger some stop loss.......but overall, I don't think that the pare will not touch 1.420.......

I will add short USD/NOK if EUR/USD reach close to 1.450.......

Good luck!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 13:16
jack, yes but it will have to be shortlived.

chloe, oil still has NOt clsoed above 72.50. i think there could be some dollar-supportive talk at IMF/WB meetings this month and later in G20.

Ashraf
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 11:43
ashraf were oil closed above 72.50 is that a bullish sign thaat today oil will continue to climb?of the new out today which is the most important to watch ..fomc decision?also do u expect some1 to intervene on usd ..possible have other countrys rally behind usd ...didn;t china russia ect...all rally behind usd last time usd hit 1.0650..stating usd is still # currency out there..thaanks
JackD
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 10:13
Thanks Ashraf and Speculator for your replies.

Ashraf, are you still expecting a small correction of 5-6% on USD to the positive side?

-Jack Dee
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 9:53
jack, rising rates are only positive for a currency when they are NOT expected to hurt the economy. Yes, there has been chatter that some members of the FOMC wanting an earlier exit strategy ( in the form of rate hike, reducing liquidity and reducing Fed balance sheet). Now, if these rumours make more noise and materialize, then that would be negative for the market, which could BOOST USD. The very low USD lbor rates and deteriorating US budget deficit is going to continue to be dollar-negative and the ONLY WAY for USD to regain some ground is more lasting wave of risk aversion.

Ashraf
Qin
Sweden
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 9:41
spec............sterling will be new carry fund?? your comment is clueless......you really need to learn FX more and more......i think it will take years..........

chloethebull, I think you are too confident on USD.......be careful, and good luck!!!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 7:38
FOMC increasing rates is HIGHLY USD positive do not discount this as currently dollar is being abused as a cary currency to fund higher risk investments. Once they increase, sterling will become the new carry currency and thats when sterling will fall heavily.
JackD
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 3:14
Dear Ashraf,

If FOMC thinks about raising rates (or there is rumour to that effect), would that be USD positive? If so, not sure I understand why the market is behaving as it does with risk trades being on and USD weakening. Usually rumours of rate hike would spur strength in the currency.

Puzzled,

Jack Dee
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