Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

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Most Infamous Rogue Traders
Everybody knows that trading carries the risk of losing serious money, but rogue traders are defined by their wildly excessive, reckless, or unauthorized trading habits.

As Jerome Kerviel's trial kicks off this week over trades that cost French bank Societe Generale 4.9 billion euros ($6 billion) back in 2008, history indicates that his kind of rogue activity is more common than you might think. Rogue traders fascinate the public because they tend not to act out of greed. They don't care about money. They care about winning.

Rogue traders routinely breach their trading limits, and frequently concoct elaborate cover-ups to hide their losses. Their activity is in the grey area between civil and criminal illegality for the reason that the trader is a legitimate employee of a company or institution, yet enters into transactions on behalf of their employer without permission.

So who are the world's most infamous rogue traders? Click ahead to find out!

By Barbara Stcherbatcheff

My opinion Crazy things !

As if a trader could make what he want !

I'm trader and I cannot do what I want !

like hani i had something on my mind too but then I forgot to ask :)

Ashraf please explain;

The Fed Model that hypothesizes returns on 10-year Treasury notes should be similar to the S&P 500 earnings yield. Differences in these returns identify an overpriced or underpriced securities market. The premise behind the model is that bonds and stocks are competing investment products. An investor is constantly making choices between investment products as the relative prices between these products change in the market place.If so where are we now and where are we headed next? And how do we justify this model in the current state of market affairs

On the other hand we have Equity Valuation and Long-Term Interest Rate. Opposition to the Fed Model has been based on both empirical, observational evidence and theoretical shortcomings. To begin, although stock and long-term bond yields appear to be correlated from the 1960s forward, they appear to be far from correlated prior to the 1960s.

When the stock market was reaching record new highs in 1999 and 2000, many stock valuation models began sounding the alarm, flagging what in hindsight proved to be an extremely overvalued stock market. However, most investors unfortunately chose to ignore this available information, believing instead that we had entered a "new economy", immune to past problems like long, painful bear markets.
Knowing PE Ratio has dropped as precipitously as in this bear market was in the aftermath of the 1929 bull market top. At its zenith in 1929, the PE Ratio was only approaching 33 while in the 2000 market top it reached 44, this isnt necessarily the way that others calculate PR ratios - Shiller methodology smoothes out the data over 10 years to remove short term volatility.

Its important to add interest rate and inflation contexts to any narrative of historic P/Es. In 1982, headline CPI averaged above 9% and the 10 year treasurys yielded over 13%. In the current environment one could argue that we are dealing with historically deflated earnings.

I use an average interest rate (AIR) which is the average of the 3 Month T-bill, 5 Year T-Note and 30 Year T-Bond. Since 1970, whenever the AIR is below 5.0, the average P/E has been 29.

Shillers interpolated monthly values to see how they match up against S&Ps quarterlies for the periods when both are available. And again, if I remember correctly, they do match up reasonably well. So you can go back and create a quarterly series based on Shillers data which is what I had done and explain to me where due see fair value in equities since we have a somewhat of an idea the interest rates are to remain low for this year (OR NOT). I', sure you understand my frustration as nothing seems to make any sense how the next 12 months are shaping out and Q3 is just over the ridge. I'm not sure I can stand this any longer, if you don't explain you may find me with a cracked skull which I got from banging into the brick wall.


Please take some time but please provide a detailed summary with numbers like monthly/quarterly earning and P/E ration and with dividends cut where will the market value for say S&P be we can calculate the rest in comparison.