Archived IMT (2009.09.30)

CHICAGO PMI IMPLICATIONS FOR ISM MANUF. Today's decline in the Sep Chicago PMi from 50 to 46.1 was the first decline after 3 straight monthly increases, accompanied by a retreat in below the 50.0 expansion level in each of the production, new orders and supplier delivery indices. The employment index edged up by a negligible 0.1 point to 38.8. The strong positive correlation between the Chicago PMI and ISM manuf stands at a monthly 0.91 since 1990 http://chart.ly/rfqy2y

, suggesting that tomorrows release of the Sep ISM shows a strong likelihood for a decline from the previous Aug 52.9 reading. The August expiration of the cash for clunkers program may have been instrumental in causing a drag across the indices. $69.95 in crude (trend line resistance from Sep 17 high) corresponds w/ $1.4675-80 in EURUSD.