Archived IMT (2009.11.16)

There was no surprise that APEC and China played failed to agree with US demands of revaluing the Chinese yuan. FX markets interpreted the news as a continuation of the status quo and more dollar weakness. US Oct retail sales due at 13:30 expected +1.0% from -1.5% and ex autos seen +0.4% from +0.5%. A return to positive territory would further boost selling of USD and JPY, but GBPUSD remains capped at $1.6740s and EURUSD still unable to regain $1.50. Keep a close watch on oil prices for the general stance in the USD, as the fuel eyes a possible recovery towards the 21-day MA of 78.94. The case of LOWER HIGHS has been an integral part of oils prci patterns over the 8 trading sessions as well as the 4 weeks. EURGBP proves once again to hold above 0.8900, now eyeing 0.8990,