Archived IMT (2009.11.23)

The 10% increase in Oct existing home sales was nearly 10 times greater than expected but currencies fail to show any significant shift towards risk plays, as EURUSD remains shy of $1.50, $GBPUSD under at 1.67 and USDCAD above 1.05. The REAL TEST will be tomorrows preliminary (second revision) of US Q3 GDP, expected to be revised to 2.8% from 3.5% (range 2.5%-3.4%). $1.5050 remains a psychological level, while $1.5055-60 is the more relevant resistance, a breach of which this time could coincide with $1,200 gold. A US GDP downward revision of no less than 3.0% would boost appetite at the expense of the USD, especially that Fed officials continue to reiterate prolonged liquidity for a considerable period of time as did Atlantas Fed Bullard. German Nov IFO could also induce moves towards $1.50 in the event of a figure of at least 92.5 in business climate index and 97 in the expectations index.