Archived IMT (2009.12.07)

ALTHOUGH BERNANKE reiterated his persistence in communicating the low inflation, low interest rate message, which is clearly USD-negative, FX traders can detect a consolidating foundation for the USD. The USD Index HAS YET TO CLOSE ABOVE THE 55-DAY MA OF 75.79, which would be the first close since April. Traders will require a daily close (preferably weekly) above 76. Technically, the RSI is now at its highest since late April, when the index reached 87. Dollar bulls continue to find hope in oils recurring failure to break above 77 (now below 74.50). The falling foundation of EURUSD and the intraday low below the vital $1.48 support of close above chart of the last12 months. Any recovery in AUDUSD & NZDUSD towards 0.9230 and 0.7220 remains could be seen as fresh selling opportunity.