Archived IMT (2010.04.13)

OIL ENTERS its 6th CONSECUTIVE daily decline (longest losing streak since December) after hitting 18-month highs at $87.09 per barrel. So far this year, US crude oil has outperformed gold, USD as well as all major currencies. The 4% pullback in oil helps explain recent downside pressure on the CRB (19 commodities), 23% of which dominated by WTI crude oil. In turn, this helps explain the CRBs recent underperformance relative to gold and copper. Technically, crude oil is vulnerable to a retreat towards $80, where both the 55 and 100-day MA converge. Deteriorating oscillators are consistent with previous peaks (Jan 11, Oct 21 and Aug 25), which increases the risk for prolonged losses towards $77.00.