Archived IMT (2008.11.04)

Stocks rally and risk appetite accumulates as the element of uncertainty is greatly reduced by heightened probabilities of a Democratic presidential win, the political component of the risk aversion may also be diminished. The latest economic data on employment and spending increasingly indicate the worst recession since the 1980s, with the budget deficit potentially reaching 4% of GDP in 2009, leading to a record twin deficit of more than 9% of GDP. By mid end of Q2 2009, the dollar's main preoccupation is likely to revert towards the structural imbalances of the US currency. REMAIN ALERT OF the possibility of a deadlocked election outcome (such as McCain winning the electoral vote and Obama leading the popular vote) that could send high yielding FX tumbling primarily against the USD.