Archived IMT (2010.08.09)

CADJPY & USDCAD. CADJPY's LOWER HIGHS pattern continues since April. Each of the last 3 cycle peaks (mid May, mid June and mid July) failed to take out prior peaks. This suggests that a break of 83.80 is unlikely to be followed by subsequent gains beyond 85.00. This is a pair with relatively substantial upswings, albeit, respecting major trendlines. A market-friendly FOMC statement tomorrow (mentions asset purchases and removes Hoenigs hawkish dissent) would further boost CADJPY past 83.80 and onto 84.20s, while re-merging risk aversion (especially S&P retreat below 1115) should confirm the lower lows in CADJPY and prompt 82.70s. Considering low yields and doubts about Canadas jobs, the bias remains negative. USDCAD will require notable risk aversion and/or CAD-negative figures to regain 1.03, Only a close ABOVE 1.0280 (61.8% retracement) is consistent with further gains.