Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.12.16)

by Ashraf Laidi
Dec 16, 2010 16:24

US-GERMAN 10 YR YIELD SPREAD (US minus German) breaks further above its 200-day MA) for the 1st time in 5 months (see chart ) The daily chart shows the spread has formed a possible Head & Shoulder formation, with the right shoulder around 45-50 bps, which means that a CLOSE ABOVE 50 bps would be necessary to invalidate this potentially bearish formation. Some may say a close only needs to be above 0.43-0.44 bps for the shoulder to be broken. So while the media emphasis is on soaring US bond yields, we must focus on the US-GE spread, whose daily correlation with EURUSD stands at -0.80. My bearishness on EURUSD remains intact since Nov 23 as all of the technical conditions have held up (55-WMA and Nov trendline). I first mentioned $1.27 in this video (after 4:00 mins) and highlighted the importance of bond yields on this Dec 1st CNBC interview


Latest IMTs