Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.03.01)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 1, 2011 6:41

PMI & ISM Surveys Blast from Europe and US this morning as the Feb manufacturing surveys attempt to beat the record year highs reached in March. German PMI exp at 62.6 from 62.6 and UK manuf PMI expected at 61 from 62. There is also UK Feb Nationwide HPI at 7 am GMT exp at -0.2% from -0.3%. UK mortgage applications and money supply data are due at 9:30 GMT. As Ive responded to a readers email in reference to the strong CAD: Its been a long while since I called for going against CAD. I always preferred shorting GBP and EUR to CAD Mondays stronger than expected release of Canada Q4 GDP at 3.3% from 1.8% helped drag USDCAD down to 0.97. Preferable CAD longs seen against EUR and NZD with the latter idea highlighted by the latest severe earthquake in NZ. As for GBPUSD, it has yet to regain both trendlines (extending from Nov 2007 high and from the Aug 2009 high). Accordingly, any protections for GBPUSD shorts may be considered above 1.6370-1.6400. USD broke below 77 but deepening bearishness would be confirmed once we see a close below 76.50. On the USD positive side is the weaker than exp China PMI, while on the negative side is Bernankes testimony 15:00 GMT, reiterating that inflation sufficiently weak to justify zero interest rates into June.


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