Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.03.09)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 9, 2011 15:37

NZD and GBP countdown into their respective interest rate decisions (RBNZ Wednesday at 20:00 GMT, BoE Thursday noon GMT). Consensus expects RBNZ to cut by 25-bps to 2.75% but there is talk of a possible 50-bp rate cut. Notably, NZD outperformed AUD and most other currencies on Tuesday when the USD rallied across the board. Potential hedging plays may be considered w/ short NZDUSD and short AUDNZD ahead of the RBNZ, exploiting AUDs ongoing weakness and muted rebound. ------ GBPUSD TRADERS RECALL my repetitive calls on the importance of the $1.6360-70 trendline resistance (from Nov 2007 high), which held last week in the face of attempted bullish assault. The suibsequent decline towards 1.6130s may well play again when (if) the BoE holds rates steady tomorrow. In teh meantime, 1.6260s resistance is seen intact---------- EURGBP REMAINS well under the 2 year and 10-month trendlines as shown in the latest hotchart, while more interestingly, the price is under those trendlines as well as the 100-week MA of 0.8623, See HotChart for more detail


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