Archived IMT (2011.04.13)

Private economists continue to revise down their forecasts for US Q1 GDP, with JP Morgan revising its fcst for REAL Q1 GDP down to 1.5%. Goldman Sachs cut its nominal Q1 GDP fcst to 2.5% from the earlier 3.5%. Rising oil is increasingly becoming an issue for consumers as well as private economists' forward-looking views. But as long as USDX weakness is sustained by a QE2 remaining intact until end of June, the mechanics of the inverse OIL-USD relationship should prevail. We must NOT eliminate the possibility for prolonged USD weakness and a pullback in oil, an occurrence, which could unfold on the heels of prolonged Fed dovishness and receding global growth projections for H2. Early signs of such a rare development could be sighted via steady EURUSD and weakness in oil. EURUSD is seen remaining underpinned at its Feb 18 trendline support of $1.4250s, which should maintain the slow road for a possible $1.4970s target, especially now that the 1.4360s (76.4% retrcmt) has been cleared away.

AL