Intraday Market Thoughts

Eurozone Retail Sales, German Orders Awaited

by Kyle Morrison
Jan 6, 2012 8:21

Eurozone retail sales and jobs data awaited, Swiss deflationary pressures expected to remain a concern, German factory orders risk further declines. US payrolls under focus after record ADP rise.

The uncertainty playing out across Europe in recent months has not unsurprisingly seen consumers keeping their hands firmly in their pockets, a fact borne out by yesterdays preliminary German retail sales plunging by 0.9% in November, against an expectation of a rise of 0.2%. Thursday's premium trades are in progress.

Today November Eurozone retail sales unlikely to fare better, with expectations of a slide of 0.4%, with the yearly figure expected to show a slide of 0.9%.

The November unemployment rate isnt expected to improve either, staying at 10.3%, and with December economic confidence figures all expected to remain low this morning, confidence in Europe is unlikely to improve anytime soon.

Swiss CPI for December is expected to show further deflationary pressure with a decline of 0.1%, translating to a 0.6% decline year on year. A continued decline in prices would place SNB under further scrutiny with respect to its policy on the peg, and given the damage to SNBs Hildebrands reputation by his wifes scandal of taking advantage of ultra cheap FX rates, markets may see this as an opportunity to test the SNBs mettle on this policy.

German factory orders for November are expected to reverse some of their sharp rise in October of 5.2%, with a decline of 1.6% expected.

In the US the main focus will be on todays December non-farm payrolls data after yesterdays surprise blow-out ADP number which came out at a record 325k. It remains to be seen if todays non-farm payrolls data will be similarly good, but expectations have been raised, with minimum expectations of 150k from Novembers 120k.

The details of Thursday’s Premium trades on EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, Gold, US crude is found here: Nonsubscribers can click here:


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