Intraday Market Thoughts

How US Data Upside Weighs on Appetite

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 6, 2012 17:09

US NFP rose 200K in Dec, posting their 15th consecutive monthly increase. Private payrolls rose 212K to post their 22nd straight month rise. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% to post its lowest level since Feb 2009. The overwhelmingly USD-favourable news maintained the greenback on the upside, especially as equities moved lower, erasing all of their post-data gains. Reporters have attributed the pullback to renewed Ezone debt concerns but that is not necessarily accurate, as markets have already witnessed such pattern (not exactly typical), whereby across-theboard strength in US jobs boosts the USD along w/ equities, until the US currency holds out for commodities and equities to take the risk trade lower. We saw this in July 2009 and Dec 2009 when US Nov jobs similarly showed an unexpectedly low unemp rate and higher than exp increase in payrolls. Equities may be attempting to regain the mornings highs but the USD has other plans against all major currencies, particularly euro, which is now testing 1.27 and enters what could be its 3rd monthly decline, the longest losing streak since summer 2010. THURSDAYs Premium trades saw 2 trades hit all targets, 3 remained unfilled, 3 in progress and both oil shorts stopped out. View, which remained unfilled, and which are in progress here: Nonsubscribers can click here:



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