Intraday Market Thoughts

NFP Neared our 70K Prediction, & now what?

by Ashraf Laidi
Jun 1, 2012 20:24

We'll show why and how we predicted today's NFP at 70K vs actual reading of 69K in our upcoming Premium Insights to be posted over the weekend. Needless to say, luck always helps. Most economists had 120K-150K. It was the worst reading since September 2010, when payrolls fell by 27K. The rise in the UNEMPLOYMENT rate to 8.2% from 8.1% was the FIRST INCREASE SINCE JUNE 2011. The LAST TIME NFP SLOWED FOR 4 STRAIGHT WEEKS WAS IN 2008 (see our quotes in this weekend's FT) EURUSD showing signs of a potential rebound into middle next week after shedding 5 straight weeks, longest losing streak since 2010. POSSIBLE CAUSES FOR FRIDAY's EURUSD rebound are i) Passing of Irish referendum favouring Euro austerity ii) end-of month fixing coinciding with start of 4-day weekend in London (mkts shut until Wednesday). We will post our Premium Intermarket Insight over the weekend ahead of what promises to be a messy and volatile Asia Monday open. AUDUSD shorts, EURUSD shorts, all GBPUSD shorts are all done, with 1 EURUSD short outstanding and 1 gold sot stopped out. Direct access to those trades is here. To become paid subscriber and to view archives of all our Insights going to May 2011m click here:



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